Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x289d1a8688617da963ea4c19784609621ccf040ff22a0f27820ba46f9802460b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 58c | 2,054$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.07 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd217…7561backed Yes | 44c | 999.44$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…0643backed Yes | 73c | 861.42$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 52c | 569.36$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.47 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 541.13$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 34c | 462.62$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.61 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 382.12$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 28c | 374.53$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.98 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 41c | 362.59$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 330.01$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 45c | 316.98$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.19 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 264.8$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 238.4$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.93 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 42c | 227.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.41 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 41c | 187.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.23 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 57c | 186.34$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.62 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 67c | 184.88$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 180.34$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 30c | 177.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.01 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 32c | 170.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 33c | 163.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.34 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 53c | 160.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.52 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 59c | 160$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…cd79backed No | 64c | 145.69$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 43c | 144.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 64c | 139.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.09 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 139.2$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 43c | 127.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632e…6a56backed Yes | 57c | 117.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 55c | 116.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 48c | 114.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 16c | 106.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.71 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 92.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 55c | 90.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…bfeabacked Yes | 55c | 88.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 44c | 87.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 86.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 36c | 85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 37c | 84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 47c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 32c | 82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 75c | 79.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 27c | 73.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 43c | 73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed No | 33c | 72.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked No | 48c | 70.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 38c | 70.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 54c | 69.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 65.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 61c | 65.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 34c | 64.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 49c | 63.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 52c | 63.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…13c3backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 45c | 58.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed No | 44c | 58.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 53c | 56.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 45c | 54.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 51.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…dcfebacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 42c | 47.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 56c | 46.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 45c | 44.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed Yes | 56c | 41.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 46c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 35c | 39.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 51c | 39.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 71c | 35.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 52c | 35.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 46c | 35.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb67…322fbacked Yes | 41c | 34.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 31c | 33.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 51c | 32.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…a730backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 42c | 29.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 58c | 29.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.