Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd73b63700db3ed55bb84fcf1bc7d315a8e498f1de37584b5c3147708dfa77b90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 40c | 2,037$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.88 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 77c | 1,614$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.6 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 42c | 1,339$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.52 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 732.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 584.51$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.47 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 534.38$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.07 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 532$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.04 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 518.07$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 66c | 431.78$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.78 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 56c | 421.26$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.35 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 396.42$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 394.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 9c | 377$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 29c | 375$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 23c | 368$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 351.53$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 25c | 351.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 73c | 346.94$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.14 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 298.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 286.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 264.8$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed No | 79c | 226.63$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 218.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 36c | 210.24$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 57c | 202$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 15c | 199.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 75c | 186.93$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 180$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 79c | 163.44$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 14c | 154.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 145.45$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 144.33$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 34c | 136.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 77c | 136.03$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 78c | 135.26$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 21c | 130.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 77c | 129.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 126.05$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 115.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 24c | 110.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 15c | 109.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 66c | 101.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 62c | 100.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 24c | 97.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 32c | 95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 93.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 92.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 92.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed No | 66c | 92.28$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 65c | 90.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 88.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 86.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…c90bbacked No | 70c | 86.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 57c | 85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 82.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 35c | 80.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 65c | 78.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 28c | 74.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 68.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…13c3backed Yes | 22c | 67.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 25c | 67.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…f2dabacked No | 75c | 65.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 80c | 57.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 22c | 55.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…0643backed No | 59c | 55.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 22c | 55.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 60c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 50.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…cf77backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 48.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 47.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed No | 78c | 46.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 45.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 31c | 42.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 24c | 42.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 27c | 41.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 40.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 38c | 39.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 70c | 38.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 38.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.