Movies · resolved market
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27186c07dbc4460494e6d77b438c483081f4bea1b9ac76f812c3d73cdeb9af26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked No | 5c | 4,119$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.72 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 70c | 2,677$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.55 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 77c | 1,998$1,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.94 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 15c | 1,377$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.77 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b4…308bbacked No | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed No | 1c | 1,127$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 2c | 1,054$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed No | 11c | 1,020$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…8ed2backed No | 1c | 1,005$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 3c | 699.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 2c | 699.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes | 74c | 653.65$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 8c | 591.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 563.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 3c | 519.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 76c | 518.18$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.97 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…bf8fbacked No | 4c | 512.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0259…33c9backed No | 4c | 511.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 501$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 41c | 500$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.13 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 42c | 499.98$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0a…c5c0backed No | 7c | 414.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 20c | 376.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 79c | 350$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 41c | 256.54$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 222.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 57c | 218.96$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed No | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 9c | 139.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 65c | 132.36$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 17c | 129$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 49c | 113.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 19c | 110.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 32c | 108.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…36f3backed Yes | 58c | 95.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a2…5521backed No | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3670…f55ebacked Yes | 48c | 83.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4663…ad6bbacked No | 51c | 78.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 35c | 73.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 69.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…3c32backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…c1c9backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…6435backed No | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…0c26backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc001…4b7cbacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 57c | 38.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1959…0b3fbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdb…d13abacked Yes | 61c | 22.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1a…c7cabacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…453ebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 5m?this page
- Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 4m?No won
- Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m?No won
- Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4.5m and 5m?No won
- Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 4.5m?No won
- Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.