Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 25% on December 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc296d9454717ca47bceafbaa6c6fd536c21607fc31bd70099bf3a1bf7ead62ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 41c | 338.93$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.78 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 52c | 269.68$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.55 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 265$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 58c | 233.12$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed Yes | 59c | 200$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 40c | 167.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed No | 41c | 137.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 111$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 19c | 107.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed No | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa326…1b16backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 48c | 43.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 39c | 42.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa940…b81bbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…4cd9backed No | 63c | 38.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 58c | 31.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff0…c7aabacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 25% on December 10?this page
- Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 20% on December 10?No won
- Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 30% on December 10?No won
- Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 40% on December 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.