Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 30% on December 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1cd799347d8cfdea7ddab6fcebac75ec3409dea77225200e4e71bdbe13d99c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 61c | 643.42$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.45 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 23c | 616.84$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.47 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 68c | 583.91$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.85 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 27c | 500$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 78c | 423.22$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…cf2abacked No | 75c | 396.2$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Yes | 35c | 247.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 13c | 240$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 34c | 240$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 30c | 226.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 77c | 155.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 13c | 123.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 26c | 77.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 23c | 71.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed No | 75c | 50.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 31c | 45.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 73c | 40.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…0919backed No | 74c | 38.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b84…5061backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…7ff5backed No | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 30% on December 10?this page
- Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 20% on December 10?No won
- Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 25% on December 10?No won
- Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 40% on December 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.