Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 20% on December 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cdcfab96a715196868766aed23f54f75ebeec26a7b96402750b9403f8d015c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x405f…4940backed Yes | 0c | 5,173$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 34c | 1,277$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.7 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 6c | 828.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 19c | 413.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 68c | 243.69$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.23 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1919…351cbacked Yes | 53c | 214.4$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 63c | 200.72$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 9c | 186.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 182.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 39c | 154.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.89 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed No | 20c | 138.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 36c | 123.53$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 72c | 120$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 79c | 110$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…624fbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Yes | 68c | 84.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…ee32backed No | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed No | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…fe88backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa940…b81bbacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 38c | 38.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf38f…4f52backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b84…5061backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 20% on December 10?this page
- Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 25% on December 10?No won
- Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 30% on December 10?No won
- Fed Derivative: Jan "25bps cut" over 40% on December 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.