TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,352
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,123

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,352 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x06d6…44bcbacked Yes46c1,500$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.973135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes2c1,148$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.83,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No69c923.23$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.294,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked No76c695.03$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.336845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No67c603.16$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.215,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c460.84$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.624,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes34c444.51$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.7659021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes21c442.49$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.252,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes12c408.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.898636%31 W · 55 L+10.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+40.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes5c400$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1834918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes35c383.92$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3340265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c376.24$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.5612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes21c261.19$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3715334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes43c218.66$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.875,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes22c190.01$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.073,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c184.6$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.559,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes42c180.54$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.552532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No58c178$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.372,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No58c177.04$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.7326067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes19c171.31$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes43c160$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No66c150.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5532872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes21c149.95$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.176,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes36c142.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8587437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No57c139.55$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.321,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes46c137.66$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7336150.4%182 W · 179 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x073e…8416backed No57c131.49$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.548848.9%43 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes38c131.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508650%43 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1fb9…191abacked Yes36c129.39$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.581741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes35c129.36$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.734,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No57c126.37$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.141,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes40c125.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes15c122.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.078641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes26c122.17$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.642,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes29c118.32$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7632147.4%152 W · 169 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc950…9420backed Yes12c106.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8413035.4%46 W · 84 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x116d…fbf1backed Yes25c105.86$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4717859%105 W · 73 L+20.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes19c101.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.14,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No55c94.12$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1397570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8651…8a35backed Yes38c94$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No55c90.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8568867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes14c86.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes27c85.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No57c84.14$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.873,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No76c83.46$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.392,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No60c76.04$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.452,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No66c75.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4418565.4%121 W · 64 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf01d…bb31backed No71c73.84$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6916272.2%117 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No60c73.68$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.471,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes35c70.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5317831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes36c69.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes21c69.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2444945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes19c68.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7824542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No71c66.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.612,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes47c66$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.917237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes37c65.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1277151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No53c63.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0880560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No58c63.55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9398565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9008…09f0backed Yes35c62.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2211939.5%47 W · 72 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No66c61.85$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.012,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes18c59.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82d8…03eabacked Yes37c58.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5511612.1%14 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8596…a5abbacked Yes52c57.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.651040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes44c57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0819022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No58c56.09$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.354867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes18c55.49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.212,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No59c54.43$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3946457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6da…9270backed Yes18c54.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick35cpaid+94%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes45c51.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.042,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes41c50.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9811438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes42c50.28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1170148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb6…4f98backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51540%6 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6944…3902backed No62c49.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes31c47.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes34c47.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1967336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes29c46.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.621,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No60c44.83$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.832,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8241…1ababacked Yes51c44.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.56944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd69f…e526backed Yes34c44.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes33c44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.521,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2cbe…e435backed Yes47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024451.2%125 W · 119 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes41c41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1742148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes35c40.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.131,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No58c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.652,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0523…ace5backed No67c39.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.41936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No63c39.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7124164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13d3…415ebacked Yes40c34.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9242253.1%224 W · 198 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No71c34.39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.132,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c33.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.254,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…281bbacked No63c33.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.352853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No53c33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.511,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No52c33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.841,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.261,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No54c31.68$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6894552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No54c31.67$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.673,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc399…53abbacked No71c31.34$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.017231.9%23 W · 49 L-8.5wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb0b5…e373backed Yes37c30.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1415128.5%43 W · 108 L-12.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.13,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a4b…b048backed Yes47c29.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6784…7565backed No54c29.63$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.636451.6%33 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.