TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,635
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,646

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,635 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf421…efcebacked Yes27c1,817$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,321.1242820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes75c1,132$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.3340265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No42c927.54$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.44,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No29c670.37$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.036,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa9e…2264backed Yes21c613$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.7310351.5%53 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No49c603.1$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.695,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes51c547.35$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.031,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No24c536.52$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.242,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No28c516.81$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8559021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No77c499.13$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.142,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No46c486.72$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.013,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No37c468.16$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.014,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No65c367.92$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.8149646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed Yes34c345.98$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.1326441.3%109 W · 155 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c341.99$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.695,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No74c339.33$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.364,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No28c316.74$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.371,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No41c301.64$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5724262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa16d…6ca6backed Yes30c300$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked No28c286.98$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.686845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No80c279$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.21,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No24c266.83$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9667158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c247.94$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No24c235.79$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5961760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No69c233.01$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.8842754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes29c232.98$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.5113430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No68c232.93$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.692,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No80c230$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18486949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes19c225.42$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.822,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No5c218.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.232,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes32c210$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.970741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No26c187.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes31c150.33$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.459548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x517d…f41fbacked Yes36c150$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8513048.5%63 W · 67 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No19c148.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x38c7…806ebacked Yes19c144.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.791850%9 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+80.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes35c143.51$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.518650%43 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No34c137.32$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1286847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes33c136.91$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.9121236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e04…80babacked Yes72c131.92$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.946349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cd2…c304backed Yes74c128.36$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3716038.8%62 W · 98 L+18.0wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+123.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No66c126.72$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.711,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes72c124.25$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.836,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes21c105.07$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No12c104.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.931,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes41c100.91$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9115027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7497152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb139…29a1backed Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305046%23 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8124732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No25c91.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.862,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No50c90.31$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.92,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes19c89$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.371,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes39c85$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.8756627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes74c84.34$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6644945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No71c84.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.623,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes61c82.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1610023%23 W · 77 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No20c82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1215236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No25c81.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.452,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No45c80.55$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2565353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd489…7f08backed No80c79.81$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.859566.3%63 W · 32 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes39c79.1$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.488247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce1…3a27backed No33c76.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.331060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5886952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No44c71.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2548261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes68c71.3$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9414645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked No67c70.1$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1628441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes19c70$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.53,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No70c70$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4963143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes30c67.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3335429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No79c65$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3524546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c82…6b5dbacked No26c64.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.773243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9dd…4226backed Yes59c62.33$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.334045%18 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No68c60.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7480560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked No21c60.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6627247.8%130 W · 142 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No74c57.96$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9326256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes40c57$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9912941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No68c56.05$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9954867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No27c55.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes20c55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9515868.4%108 W · 50 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No67c54.24$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3457948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes74c53.33$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.877132.4%23 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad5b…faddbacked Yes24c52.46$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.872227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid+9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No67c50.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.361,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa80…58e7backed No65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.512853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed No22c49.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No68c49.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4946457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes26c48.23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.691,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes24c47.78$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.327413.5%10 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No74c47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5598565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No68c43.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.653,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No31c41.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No70c40.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.412,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xede4…1c40backed No79c40.28$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8215369.9%107 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3ba…1deabacked No64c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.654450%22 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No45c39.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.862,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1772…6c83backed Yes28c39.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+256.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a86…9f83backed Yes78c38.33$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.338476.2%64 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1dc…4f72backed No68c36.37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9124164.7%156 W · 85 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.