Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6e36bcb31da16ca0d69df7e0f3ce922f36885aa5c8f43691b259748c8441e9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,294 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7431…9f72backed Yes | 0c | 35,894$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 621.59$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 527.95$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 16c | 488.76$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 450.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 20c | 357$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.57 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 250.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 215.29$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01bf…9fa6backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 195.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 16c | 186.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 27c | 181.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ee…bcecbacked Yes | 16c | 165.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 16c | 155.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 155.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 143.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 15c | 138.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 135.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 69c | 134.04$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6e…b925backed Yes | 23c | 128$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871c…ccebbacked Yes | 23c | 125$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 120.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…43ebbacked Yes | 22c | 114$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 22c | 105.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…04c0backed Yes | 23c | 105$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 17c | 100.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…406bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2a33backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 99.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 96.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6f…333bbacked Yes | 23c | 94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 68c | 94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 16c | 93.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…188cbacked Yes | 24c | 93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 15c | 81.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 22c | 79.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 26c | 77.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 28c | 76.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 73.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 21c | 71.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 18c | 69.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 20c | 68.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0db8backed No | 77c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 58.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1c…9626backed No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 20c | 49.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fb…c145backed No | 78c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 67c | 45.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 78c | 45.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…65bbbacked No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 25c | 42.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa470…f6bdbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5e…7696backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…c867backed No | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5d…9911backed No | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 77c | 38.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…878ebacked No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb610…0f48backed No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 36.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ec…6a6cbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa777…1afbbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56a…a2eabacked No | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 75c | 33.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed No | 80c | 33.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 29.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1560…a451backed No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69e…f9f6backed No | 76c | 28.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…ed97backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…ceb4backed No | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 68c | 26.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…a14ebacked No | 78c | 25.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…3f7fbacked No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…c899backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 80c | 21.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…e5d4backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd955…49c0backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 73c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…f095backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…8209backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked No | 78c | 19.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…8693backed No | 79c | 19.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 74c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…8b81backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 76c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.