Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03383a92b42efd08d0ddace1c9006a9723c67e415566bf1798ebb2cbdecdd255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,374 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb28…1d30backed Yes | 21c | 3,822$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4d…74cfbacked No | 79c | 1,315$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1892…00d1backed No | 79c | 1,305$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…2a1ebacked No | 79c | 1,295$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 5c | 925.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 36c | 898.53$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.08 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 609.75$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 24c | 474.26$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.32 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 390.3$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.95 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 20c | 357$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 14c | 332.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed No | 78c | 318.94$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 62c | 307.79$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 19c | 287.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 24c | 283.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 77c | 283.01$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 17c | 279.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 270.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 60c | 251.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 212.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 207.82$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 204.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 27c | 201.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 12c | 184.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed Yes | 27c | 178.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 20c | 178.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 28c | 177.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 159.76$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 17c | 149.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 70c | 140.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 74c | 132.36$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…6b95backed No | 76c | 131.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 18c | 121.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e20…0815backed Yes | 22c | 111.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 111.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed Yes | 41c | 101.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…f36dbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a84…e23abacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…ded8backed Yes | 19c | 93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…dd4bbacked Yes | 18c | 92.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 92.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf994…8f7ebacked Yes | 18c | 89.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Yes | 28c | 86.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…99f1backed Yes | 16c | 86.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 84.26$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 83.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 78c | 79.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 74.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 27c | 73.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 75c | 72.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ec…95dabacked Yes | 22c | 72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 69.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 30c | 67.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 77c | 67.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 16c | 64.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked No | 80c | 62.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 27c | 60.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 26c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 57c | 54.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 50.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 47.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 38c | 44.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 44.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 40.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 72c | 37.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 42c | 33.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f2…33e5backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2f…0a46backed No | 76c | 29.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 75c | 28.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…d084backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 74c | 16.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d8…ade3backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked No | 77c | 13.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.