Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda9ab1d8c7f202cd00ed67c24b4ff6549d2af6e32b625975bdd7131991093eea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,657 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 610$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 23c | 508.28$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.58 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 462.34$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.02 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 21c | 451.01$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 45c | 425.09$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.21 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 12c | 413.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 35c | 402.17$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.73 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 15c | 389.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 49c | 357$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.62 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 77c | 333$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 8c | 322.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 28c | 306.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 61c | 241.62$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.14 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 49c | 224.65$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 223$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 55c | 200.77$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.21 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 42c | 199.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 35c | 199.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 57c | 197.8$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.33 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 65c | 191.07$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed Yes | 56c | 188.86$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 55c | 181.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.05 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 70c | 176.55$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 51c | 170.75$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 42c | 158.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed No | 66c | 152.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 147.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…002ebacked No | 48c | 142$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 53c | 138.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 132.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5c…ff9ebacked Yes | 80c | 125.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 70c | 121.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 51c | 119.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 117.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 112.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed Yes | 72c | 110.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 109.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 109.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 65c | 99.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a84…e23abacked Yes | 58c | 99.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 37c | 98.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 42c | 82.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 47c | 81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 62c | 80.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 52c | 79.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e20…0815backed Yes | 63c | 79.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 78.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 78c | 77.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 52c | 75.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 71.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 76c | 68.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 36c | 67.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 64.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 49c | 63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 55c | 60.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 51c | 58.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8c…7794backed No | 64c | 55.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…0c6dbacked Yes | 52c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 58c | 50.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…bdf5backed No | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 29c | 49.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cb…c1dcbacked No | 54c | 49.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 60c | 49.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 22c | 48.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…ad22backed Yes | 52c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f4…a82abacked Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 45c | 43.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 30c | 43.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 67c | 43.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…ef3dbacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 39.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5afb…92edbacked Yes | 67c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…cf22backed No | 63c | 38.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +119%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 79c | 38.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 48c | 36.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 54c | 35.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.