Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10c21de782daeda223a994351e878145ef9db4ebfbfbee8a61de4f4ea63e16d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 24c | 1,564$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.67 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 326.84$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.4 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 77c | 255.72$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.22 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 76c | 236.82$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.01 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 77c | 220$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.4 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…a8f6backed Yes | 75c | 200$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 58c | 189.48$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 177.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 72c | 171.45$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.71 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 72c | 147.91$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491f…b511backed Yes | 72c | 140.75$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed No | 36c | 124.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 75c | 101.39$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…1a08backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 76c | 93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 182 | 18.7%34 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…f722backed Yes | 77c | 61.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…424bbacked Yes | 77c | 59.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfebc…160ebacked Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 77c | 52.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…1d63backed Yes | 77c | 50.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 72c | 50.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 40c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed No | 29c | 42.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…2adcbacked Yes | 73c | 34.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…51eebacked Yes | 73c | 27.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58cf…8a72backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -6.4wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…9e6abacked Yes | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.