Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f84117bc3896084097de7041a6fd4bea771de44a69904e40e3a559323e2981d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,668 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 2,180$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 1,293$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.4 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 486.15$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 399.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 362.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 259.07$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 5c | 234.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 11c | 230.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 199.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 195.61$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 18c | 192.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 14c | 181.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 24c | 148.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 144.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…ef3dbacked Yes | 18c | 139.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 134$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 20c | 125.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 124.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 100.04$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 78c | 99.95$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 99.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 18c | 96.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 77c | 91.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 28c | 90.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 77c | 78.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked Yes | 20c | 73.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…58f1backed Yes | 23c | 73.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 80c | 71.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 70.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 76c | 69.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 62.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x95aa…fe61backed Yes | 21c | 62.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…6f0bbacked Yes | 23c | 54.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 22c | 49.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 20c | 49.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 21c | 49.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 23c | 45.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 78c | 43.75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 40.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 36.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked No | 78c | 35.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 78c | 31.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…333bbacked No | 77c | 28.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 24.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 24.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 75c | 21.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3737…226abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b3…0b0fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 76c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 17.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 76c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4a17backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 82°F or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.