TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,733

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,733 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes26c2,516$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.421,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c1,339$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.8317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff2a…1b56backed Yes11c1,138$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.55185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick13cpaid+268.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39a8…7d57backed No73c780$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c509.21$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.835,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c422.83$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.547,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No68c415.74$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.432157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes17c349.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.512235.2%43 W · 79 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes7c291$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.46,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad62…2aa9backed Yes17c236.53$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6816532.7%54 W · 111 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No75c232.22$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2786050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No64c213.36$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0854043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d7…3377backed No75c200$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512040%8 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes16c178.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.533726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes19c159.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.268,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes10c157.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0756424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x393d…6b95backed No64c155.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.621526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick50cpaid-58.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x822b…d99ebacked Yes44c155$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No73c145$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5590040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No77c142.37$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.291,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes24c138$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.393,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No75c132.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.832,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes17c130$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.11,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Yes26c125.16$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.545129.4%15 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeee…7c09backed No64c120.1$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.329351.6%48 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf3a…cdddbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-83.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.718740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No67c99.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3341767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes30c98.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308535.3%30 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes36c98.3$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3542438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes30c83.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2581029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No63c77$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.23,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d29…c502backed No76c75.31$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.314261.9%26 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdd5…46b6backed No59c74$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.343100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce45…aa7bbacked No70c71.08$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.083920.5%8 W · 31 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-67.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes25c69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes36c65.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.581,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x662b…eb47backed No71c65.52$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.183647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No66c64$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7627756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb7…58f1backed Yes33c63.08$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2de8…0a6cbacked Yes24c61.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.88911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick24cpaid+11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No79c61.66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.862,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes33c61.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055942.6%238 W · 321 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb4…692abacked No67c52.23$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.243357.6%19 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked No77c51.75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9426169.3%181 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x740e…93a9backed Yes36c51.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.433748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.361,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes36c49.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1833839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6993…6f0bbacked Yes37c48.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.931225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No61c48$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.721,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14c2…7105backed Yes42c47.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203828.9%11 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x060c…9352backed Yes34c44.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159133%30 W · 61 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No58c43.12$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1181756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No70c41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.354143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda18…4282backed No69c40.72$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.652846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.415558.1%90 W · 65 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb087…f41bbacked Yes47c39.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.581030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-49.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed No64c39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0412540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8638…2d36backed Yes33c37.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.512954.3%70 W · 59 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39da…5318backed No54c36.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.826643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No72c34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5232760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No58c33.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.113531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7866…3e9fbacked No78c33.46$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32f0…c659backed No61c33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8723547.7%112 W · 123 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No77c32.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.471,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5be9…bf5cbacked No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.774757.4%27 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcfa…1542backed Yes43c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.98239%32 W · 50 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No68c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.631,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed No74c29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5424932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0314071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ddb…513dbacked No75c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.751471.4%10 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick71cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc437…0f42backed Yes39c26.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.322927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-41.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x997f…000abacked No74c25.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.614548.3%70 W · 75 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a1…3e11backed No59c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No73c24.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6426458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5731…f4f1backed No59c24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce3b…ddcbbacked No78c23.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedb…5e54backed No64c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4918351.4%94 W · 89 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f15…0ce5backed No77c22.53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.182050%10 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed No74c21.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.589139.6%36 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8a…edf9backed No67c21.26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.057638.2%29 W · 47 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2531567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaaa…f641backed No74c19.36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0310060%60 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2035…0c4ebacked No61c19.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.483658.3%21 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd19b…7873backed No76c19.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b3…0b0fbacked No72c18.59$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick73cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x243f…589ebacked No73c18.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.916866.2%45 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe673…d489backed No59c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.383100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+109.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41d0…a837backed No75c13.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.385962.7%37 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.