Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe29ed2462097e273e875e858ff68a54d7432aedf8fc04a5cf86ffd894b879041
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,733 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 2,516$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.42 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 1,339$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…1b56backed Yes | 11c | 1,138$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.55 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +268.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed No | 73c | 780$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 509.21$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 422.83$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 68c | 415.74$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.4 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 17c | 349.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 291$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 17c | 236.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 232.22$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 64c | 213.36$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed No | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 16c | 178.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 159.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 10c | 157.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…6b95backed No | 64c | 155.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x822b…d99ebacked Yes | 44c | 155$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 73c | 145$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 142.37$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 138$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 132.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 26c | 125.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 64c | 120.1$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 30c | 98.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 36c | 98.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 83.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 76c | 75.31$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd5…46b6backed No | 59c | 74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…aa7bbacked No | 70c | 71.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 65.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 71c | 65.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 66c | 64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…58f1backed Yes | 33c | 63.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…0a6cbacked Yes | 24c | 61.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 61.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 33c | 61.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 67c | 52.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 77c | 51.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 36c | 51.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 36c | 49.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…6f0bbacked Yes | 37c | 48.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 61c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7105backed Yes | 42c | 47.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 58c | 43.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 70c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed No | 69c | 40.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb087…f41bbacked Yes | 47c | 39.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed Yes | 33c | 37.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 54c | 36.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 58c | 33.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7866…3e9fbacked No | 78c | 33.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…513dbacked No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…0f42backed Yes | 39c | 26.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 74c | 25.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…3e11backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 73c | 24.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5731…f4f1backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3b…ddcbbacked No | 78c | 23.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed No | 77c | 22.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 74c | 21.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 67c | 21.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 74c | 19.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…0c4ebacked No | 61c | 19.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd19b…7873backed No | 76c | 19.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b3…0b0fbacked No | 72c | 18.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 73c | 18.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe673…d489backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 75c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 82°F or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.