Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e9655e88af33e3358d163d748e5e59f881b23fbc7319e3c33a9b39190475f53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,173 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1417…4aa6backed Yes | 41c | 2,564$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ba…c116backed Yes | 41c | 2,554$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…a732backed No | 59c | 1,717$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…0740backed No | 59c | 1,703$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…903ebacked No | 59c | 1,698$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 825.29$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 7c | 553.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 79c | 553.01$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.72 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 379.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 369.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 11c | 329.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 318.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 80c | 301.65$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 290.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 15c | 260.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 80c | 245.04$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 25c | 235$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 20c | 220.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…8c2fbacked Yes | 14c | 219.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 16c | 210.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 187.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 23c | 176.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 14c | 171.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…b0c6backed Yes | 19c | 154.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked Yes | 21c | 142.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 137.43$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…7810backed Yes | 18c | 129.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked Yes | 16c | 128$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 79c | 125.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 115.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 114.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 19c | 110.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 109.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 20c | 109$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 22c | 101.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 79c | 100.62$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 20c | 99.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…58f1backed Yes | 22c | 92.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed Yes | 18c | 89.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 23c | 85.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 22c | 84.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 17c | 80.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 76.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 17c | 74.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 75c | 66.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 22c | 65.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a95…23cfbacked Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 69c | 58.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…6f0bbacked Yes | 23c | 51.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…0cbabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 31c | 45.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 79c | 43.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 79c | 36.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 78c | 33.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 80c | 17.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 15.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 82°F or higher on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.