Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $100?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcee62cb00e87af8aef0ebaf45c6abc40b9e4231ff0641082b830ce67d4ebf9b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,586 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 76c | 1,320$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,047$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.11 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 23c | 617.9$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.42 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 62c | 441.27$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.82 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 24c | 269.61$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 244.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…a53ebacked No | 64c | 175$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 172.81$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +8.7wins | +0.30per pick | 46cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 19c | 163.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb764…51ddbacked No | 67c | 150.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ca…48a9backed Yes | 22c | 111.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 282 | 61%172 W · 110 L | +42.5wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 71c | 109.65$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40e…17afbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…a810backed Yes | 32c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…3637backed No | 72c | 70.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 37c | 69.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…7bedbacked Yes | 39c | 67.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed Yes | 24c | 58.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…ab91backed Yes | 38c | 53.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a4…8d86backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c5cebacked Yes | 34c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7092…99e0backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 28c | 39.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f52…b086backed No | 75c | 34.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 30.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 30.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…e9fabacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0b…5f73backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…2ba5backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $100?this page
- Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $130?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $90?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.