AI · resolved market
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x996fa73f28b71dc3b8395b0e7b370e485d0b5e53897408a5457f6eba67c37fd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 57c | 2,727$1,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.82 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 60c | 2,073$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.08 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Yes | 40c | 1,877$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fd…b42cbacked Yes | 49c | 1,545$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.39 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 40c | 1,463$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.84 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 14c | 600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…248abacked No | 16c | 562.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 64c | 558.8$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.37 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 44c | 453.03$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.73 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973f…72ccbacked Yes | 72c | 360$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 16c | 301$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.84 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…bcd2backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 27c | 277.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes | 57c | 250.41$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.41 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 64c | 205$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 43c | 193.68$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.38 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 34c | 188.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.04 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 40c | 187.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.74 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 37c | 158.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d53…3fdfbacked No | 27c | 149.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 59c | 125.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 44c | 125$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 34c | 124.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 21c | 118.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 24c | 118$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 103.74$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb39a…abedbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257b…d288backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2891…fa1dbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73c7backed Yes | 79c | 91.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 90.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 49c | 85.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…f766backed Yes | 35c | 81.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…5387backed No | 20c | 78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed Yes | 40c | 75.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf63…8d1cbacked Yes | 58c | 72.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 27c | 70.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bc…6b09backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked Yes | 41c | 60.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…4540backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b4…c3f4backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 69c | 59.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 33c | 53.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed No | 49c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…4f2dbacked No | 57c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…1da0backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…80cbbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 29c | 48.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 55c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37f1…57debacked Yes | 41c | 45.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 49c | 40.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 78c | 39.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked Yes | 78c | 38.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7573…4c2ebacked Yes | 67c | 37.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 56c | 34.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 34.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 33.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 40c | 33.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 32c | 33.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c4…19e5backed Yes | 72c | 27.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 40c | 25.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7493…d31dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…0c8dbacked Yes | 51c | 24.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…afe2backed No | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…8779backed Yes | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 49c | 20.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fd60backed No | 67c | 18.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?this page
- Will Claude go down 0-2 times in April?No won
- Will Claude go down 3-5 times in April?No won
- Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April?No won
- Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.