AI · resolved market
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05cb695f849fcd35b1360ec73c1d66b16783577772fbdf4cad37669b0514551b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 41c | 1,889$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.98 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 54c | 1,013$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…07fdbacked Yes | 46c | 890$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa994…19a6backed Yes | 23c | 883.74$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 54c | 624.65$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.8 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 24c | 558.8$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.71 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…248abacked Yes | 15c | 524.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 16c | 460$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +84%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 409.2$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.85 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 14c | 331.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 17c | 293.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 12c | 241.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 230.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 27c | 205$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 58c | 187.69$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 182.82$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed No | 59c | 170.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 68c | 146.22$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 131.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb00…8f75backed Yes | 42c | 120.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf392…46eebacked No | 54c | 115$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 11c | 101.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 78c | 84.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4068backed Yes | 13c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa92b…8cb5backed Yes | 39c | 79.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d1…b029backed No | 50c | 79.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…8850backed Yes | 41c | 70.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 68.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…0141backed Yes | 15c | 65.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b4…c3f4backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddc…c226backed No | 55c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 61c | 57.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 55c | 40.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 53c | 37.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…f766backed Yes | 55c | 35.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 42c | 35.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 45c | 34.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3769…600fbacked No | 60c | 33.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…c88bbacked Yes | 41c | 26.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab2…b321backed No | 51c | 25.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…1d2dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?this page
- Will Claude go down 0-2 times in April?No won
- Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?Yes won
- Will Claude go down 3-5 times in April?No won
- Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.