AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52b9fd7f9acc7be6dac5219adea4461d2ae03f64567ee460b7320eccaa4c2d79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 31c | 1,570$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.31 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 17c | 1,492$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.56 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 1,208$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.78 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 28c | 800.41$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.54 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 6c | 776.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 633.71$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.62 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 625$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 27c | 460.16$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.62 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 430.06$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.11 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…b04bbacked Yes | 41c | 258.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes | 16c | 251.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 26c | 242.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 28c | 242.44$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.52 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 11c | 232.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda92…b84ebacked Yes | 78c | 218.46$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 212.19$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 71c | 207.41$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 204.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 51c | 193.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 40c | 185.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 71c | 183.8$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.63 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 165.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 38c | 162.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…b853backed Yes | 35c | 143.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 136.12$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 41c | 134.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…1e88backed Yes | 68c | 129.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 105$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 32c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 71.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 38c | 68.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ce…7166backed Yes | 46c | 54.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 21c | 54.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed Yes | 24c | 52.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 30c | 51.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…dd8abacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9974…2840backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 29c | 49.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 61c | 49.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 43.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed Yes | 74c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 35.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…8eaabacked Yes | 72c | 34.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5d…1c8dbacked Yes | 37c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed Yes | 76c | 32.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 72c | 30.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed No | 63c | 25.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…9338backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e03…beaabacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 77c | 16.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa38d…7ad9backed Yes | 74c | 14.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 72c | 14.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Amazon have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will ByteDance have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Meta have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Microsoft have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.