TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,828
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,828 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5cb2…7f19backed No45c8,900$4,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa598…2ff3backed Yes55c8,847$4,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,981.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3be0…9836backed Yes55c7,853$4,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,533.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0523…ace5backed No45c7,853$3,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,533.97520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ed6…da8abacked Yes55c2,182$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed No46c1,540$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.6640640.9%166 W · 240 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31cf…8834backed No19c1,522$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.119037.8%34 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked No1c1,471$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1816851.2%86 W · 82 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked No45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4508145.7%37 W · 44 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed No46c1,000$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.9434643.9%152 W · 194 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes55c910.1$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.9229643.6%129 W · 167 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes54c884.34$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.1740254.7%220 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x47ee…a079backed Yes56c829.98$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.753652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bdc…3a4ebacked No46c800$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3684963.3%31 W · 18 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeb67…dbdebacked No44c789.96$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.58650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8cd…3cf2backed No43c668.72$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.878362.7%52 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes55c534$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.38943.8%39 W · 50 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa075…09fdbacked Yes59c360.05$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.624637%17 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd31…4f6dbacked Yes53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes52c164.56$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.994537.8%17 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12d8…7359backed No47c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f95…3012backed No46c150$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4114…b9acbacked Yes52c111.96$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7411527%31 W · 84 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa240…a10ebacked No45c111.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…5bbabacked Yes56c105.14$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33dc…9661backed Yes55c104.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.82751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc689…9279backed No47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c7b…a592backed Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbd0…afbdbacked Yes54c99.07$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33e…2e71backed Yes54c99.07$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69d4…3387backed Yes54c99.07$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec59…44ecbacked Yes54c99.07$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb20a…9caebacked Yes54c99.07$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf34…86a2backed Yes53c99.06$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c7…e143backed Yes53c99.06$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8a4…7f95backed No48c98.96$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbf6…c2cfbacked No48c98.96$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x218b…a51fbacked No47c98.94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb6…a68ebacked No47c98.94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18d3…65a2backed No47c98.94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ad0…6221backed No47c98.17$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb133…de17backed Yes54c98.15$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x258a…d1d4backed No48c96.88$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x506d…7710backed No48c96.88$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ad…f186backed Yes56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.291361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Yes53c86.19$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7240135.2%141 W · 260 L-0.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ef8…eff3backed Yes52c77.72$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.33946.2%18 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7c8…24dcbacked No45c77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x76d0…f8e7backed Yes53c75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d69…9829backed No45c70.05$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.522560%15 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d1b…5adbbacked No46c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.29747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaebb…6cf8backed No47c67.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x716a…f6cfbacked No48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305242.3%22 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x823e…02cabacked Yes53c60.1$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0a…8ac2backed No47c59.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5629146%134 W · 157 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a53…860ebacked No47c50.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb4…6681backed Yes54c50.53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.02450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f3d…fea8backed No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232532%8 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-41.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc2e7…35b1backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236944.9%31 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51b1…bce2backed Yes53c49.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.518232.4%59 W · 123 L-15.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x710d…eb90backed No47c49.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6b00backed Yes64c48.94$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.622347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33c8…72dfbacked Yes54c48.15$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f06…cd40backed No46c43.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.13933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-45.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1563…5703backed No47c43.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca1…35b3backed Yes54c43.43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.981154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb32…fbdabacked Yes53c42.68$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe563…398bbacked Yes53c41.51$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.511181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick67cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked Yes55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ff5…ce78backed Yes54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2bb…b914backed No47c39.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.78650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6ef…e2c9backed Yes63c39.53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.534242.9%18 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-19.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf4b8…d7afbacked No46c38.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.55757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7415636.5%57 W · 99 L-11.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c28…5b54backed Yes55c36.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.435100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+88.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4fb0…e7d9backed Yes53c36.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-52.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ef3…b502backed Yes58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.481241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick63cpaid-37.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe45c…40e9backed No45c33.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.292948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x363e…098cbacked Yes54c33.79$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.545100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+76.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed No46c33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1846660.5%282 W · 184 L+30.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x58cd…9179backed Yes53c31.16$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9c…e8a3backed Yes53c30.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.47425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb509…e8d7backed No47c30.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.47425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed No45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.537841.8%158 W · 220 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a5…154ebacked Yes54c29.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.77520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-63%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x651c…2c83backed No45c29.02$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95c8…9143backed Yes55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.274845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…d647backed Yes55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.271250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20cc…ebc0backed Yes53c27.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8211657.8%67 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8af1…321ebacked No46c25.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8130%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x104e…04adbacked No47c25.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb13…1918backed Yes55c25.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.421258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes52c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+35.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d8f…e728backed No47c24.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.59580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+42%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ec5…857fbacked Yes56c24.41$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6080…9019backed Yes53c24.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.42540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x025c…1cd3backed No47c24.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.42540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c4a…f7d6backed No45c23.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick53cpaid-77.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x438e…9704backed No48c23.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.014757.4%27 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.