Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa vs. Brentford end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x759acd556dd64260f7ec33988a4b0dbc77df62ddbfd77dba490ea8e6edaeb955
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa19a…2f33backed Yes | 25c | 3,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 75c | 1,782$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.6 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed No | 75c | 988.74$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.2 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e8…9c65backed Yes | 25c | 793$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 75c | 420$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 26c | 386.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed No | 74c | 354.81$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 75c | 287.25$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 25c | 264$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 24c | 222$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa32b…e132backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6256…797dbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209d…43cebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ec…41edbacked No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa319…bd72backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc391…8f41backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…abb3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…9829backed No | 75c | 33.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…4957backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -5.3wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xef04…88c3backed No | 76c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…52dbbacked No | 76c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 75cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…3e33backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa vs. Brentford end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-04?Yes won
- Will Brentford win on 2024-12-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.