Premier League · resolved market
Will Brentford win on 2024-12-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf65e713945e09e0a8559c46e02ea70a46c5e264d28e990398d0ba13191b3f147
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed Yes | 21c | 908.81$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.85 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 80c | 721.25$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.4 | 245 | 66.1%162 W · 83 L | +24.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 76c | 565.37$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.69 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 17c | 521.46$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…b027backed Yes | 22c | 452.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed No | 77c | 450.8$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.19 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 21c | 222$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d2…f555backed No | 80c | 175$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 182 | 60.4%110 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 76c | 160.87$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…65e7backed Yes | 21c | 115$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 80c | 105$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed No | 78c | 85.76$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa319…bd72backed Yes | 22c | 85.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 21c | 74.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 22c | 68.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2e…a8abbacked No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449d…d646backed No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 77c | 32.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 466 | 60.5%282 W · 184 L | +30.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa11a…3dc2backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +208.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…4e3dbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…52dbbacked No | 79c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 75cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21a2…866dbacked No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brentford win on 2024-12-04?this page
- Will Aston Villa vs. Brentford end in a draw?No won
- Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.