TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeb13…1918

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
73
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Movies, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 53 out of 100; worst College Football at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST3151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$17.3
Timberwolves vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+66.7%+$8
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST-100%-$11
Pistons vs. Lakersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2024, EST+222.6%+$24.15
Cavaliers vs. Hawksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST-100%-$33.99
Knicks vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST-100%-$152
Pelicans vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST+44.9%+$19.6
Hornets vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST+37.9%+$62.38
Magic vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$235.08
Jazz vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST+72.4%+$42
Timberwolves vs. Raptorsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$73.7
Pistons vs. Hornetsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$72.3
Magic vs. Clippersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$177.99
76ers vs. Grizzliesbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$54.9
Bulls vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST+31.6%+$31.92
Hornets vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2024, EST+69.5%+$41
Cavaliers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+51.5%+$34
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$301Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+47.9%+$144.27
Hawks vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$296.5
Pacers vs. Raptorsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$27.6
Bulls vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$100.44
Heat vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST+63.9%+$11.7
Suns vs. Timberwolvesbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$27.01
Jazz vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST+29.9%+$5.75
Spurs vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST+25%+$6
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+49.3%+$6.6
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$12.75
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$66.8
Will Brighton win on 2024-12-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$12
Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+81.8%+$11.42
Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+47.1%+$16
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+33.3%+$11.75
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$32.09
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+38.9%+$14
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+107.4%+$58.54
Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$24.7
Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+63.9%+$19.5
All 12 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2024, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick63cpaid-34.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2024, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-63%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
College Football — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
South Florida vs. San José Statebacked San José State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST-100%-$14.75
Northern Illinois vs. Fresno Statebacked Fresno State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$23.4
Minnesota vs. Wisconsinbacked Minnesota · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST+85.2%+$46
Navy vs. East Carolinabacked East Carolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST-100%-$56
Miami (OH) vs. Bowling Greenbacked Bowling Green · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST-100%-$91.17
All 5 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Moana 2' gross over $200m on 5-day opening?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+284.6%+$111
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jets vs. Maple Leafsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+37%+$9.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Pisa SC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+33.3%+$3.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will MicroStrategy market cap dip to $50b in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$273.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.