Stocks · resolved market
Will MicroStrategy market cap dip to $50b in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e032f3cd896a6e246142ed26f0dc22230eeb61d5ec862a638bdf5081d1ed1b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $279,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $244,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 7c | 30,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ae…a8b3backed Yes | 7c | 18,272$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 14c | 16,104$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,279.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed Yes | 5c | 14,123$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 12c | 13,419$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 0c | 10,083$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…9661backed Yes | 13c | 8,350$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92ec…0d7cbacked Yes | 7c | 8,121$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef2…6d23backed Yes | 15c | 6,503$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 14c | 5,925$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…09a4backed Yes | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46a…27ebbacked Yes | 8c | 3,496$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…1918backed Yes | 11c | 2,393$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 2,099$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 17c | 1,824$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804f…5eb1backed Yes | 8c | 1,604$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…6003backed Yes | 11c | 1,479$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…ddb7backed Yes | 8c | 1,417$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc69…166bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,404$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…99bebacked Yes | 4c | 1,359$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…8322backed Yes | 13c | 1,209$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…a0bebacked Yes | 20c | 1,101$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,029$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…af66backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…b2b6backed Yes | 13c | 995.43$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 19c | 756.89$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c4…b7a9backed Yes | 12c | 671.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 17c | 599.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a4…7770backed Yes | 14c | 550$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…d062backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4e…c56fbacked Yes | 10c | 478.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce79…0fc7backed Yes | 16c | 419.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ef…55d4backed Yes | 4c | 389.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 18c | 366.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…a3d2backed Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab03…fae5backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c18…49efbacked Yes | 8c | 257.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 12c | 222$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8c…028abacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8579…e191backed Yes | 10c | 196.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 8c | 174.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 7c | 173.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…bbfbbacked Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3d…9964backed Yes | 19c | 154.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes | 9c | 149.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce1…c160backed Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed5…a174backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed No | 60c | 113.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba2…5008backed Yes | 40c | 113.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…d6d5backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 16c | 100.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd295…a832backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6739…d191backed Yes | 16c | 69.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.