TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Dogecoin above $0.43 on December 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$241,886
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$228,556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $241,886 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc2d5…2884backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+5,352.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd49c…8150backed No54c15,217$8,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,990.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d7…1935backed Yes56c7,445$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,200250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d79…4725backed No48c6,202$2,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,222.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No48c6,130$2,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,166862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+43.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0973…8986backed Yes37c6,104$2,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,269.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33ae…a8b3backed Yes16c4,681$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.3130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,08060%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe1cc…07afbacked Yes69c2,917$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.95825%2 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-65.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No48c2,261$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.5933329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ccf…c90abacked No60c2,156$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.171172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1d63backed No39c1,989$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.143100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+109.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes2c1,794$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.08456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+272.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9b…3f8ebacked Yes50c1,723$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96ad…683cbacked Yes8c1,569$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+82.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x346c…a160backed No63c1,329$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-47%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ada…ee82backed Yes28c1,300$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes31c1,106$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.87575.3%3 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid+48.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70a9…6a74backed No53c1,103$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.47580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick42cpaid+71.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe487…aca6backed Yes39c1,101$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes13c1,101$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.112218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-58.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x97d2…e372backed No30c1,090$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.24540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+97.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x184d…0a71backed Yes30c779.5$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes47c662.29$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.3421240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0deb…9b0fbacked Yes76c660.65$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeec8…3ba4backed No73c654.91$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9674…72b6backed Yes44c636.41$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2621…af21backed Yes9c584.27$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5999…8bd3backed Yes60c539.07$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x171f…95fbbacked Yes38c535.99$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked No53c527.29$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.291163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x02dc…dc31backed Yes69c500$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-65.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3061…3684backed No56c496.11$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe537…1951backed Yes73c495.94$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2b7…cae8backed Yes51c486$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No28c448$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.57475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+87.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6276…67c7backed No72c441.24$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x862c…70b8backed Yes26c440.18$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb84f…3375backed Yes50c427.59$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.2720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdecc…9b2fbacked Yes73c408.98$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa784…c046backed No57c391$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x541c…a42abacked Yes73c390.53$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccaa…9066backed Yes40c390$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7e4…7319backed Yes13c388.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x090c…ba4abacked Yes35c388.19$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed87…3686backed Yes38c381.2$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf9b…fe0fbacked Yes6c376.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d1e…7a42backed No45c365.63$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+54.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc174…6941backed Yes73c363$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.62862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d2…7754backed No21c339.3$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60eb…a6d8backed Yes28c339.24$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2e…b435backed No38c335.34$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+161.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5e…5d34backed No56c317$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.484100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes26c309.09$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.241711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-77.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c71…6d07backed No36c301.86$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+179.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8734…ac10backed Yes4c300.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc8…68a4backed Yes68c294.85$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x020b…62e0backed Yes69c289.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6533…922ebacked No35c289.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+189.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2375…e90dbacked Yes42c277.14$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.67616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid+465.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes37c269$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.53540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb1…7957backed Yes74c261.55$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.9520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1191…7365backed Yes74c241.2$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8bf…1910backed Yes43c233.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+171.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a86…4805backed Yes43c231.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f37…204cbacked Yes64c224.84$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7162…9616backed No63c211.82$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2c7b…6143backed Yes50c210$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcea…e78bbacked Yes74c207.3$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.84757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf7e…d472backed Yes28c202$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10c4…466fbacked No59c201.52$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes36c201.4$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.04160%0 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes70c200$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1391844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x881d…fd31backed No73c195.7$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Yes40c195.58$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.23425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-10.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x042c…c031backed No64c189.12$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0e…7d31backed No74c188.74$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd6…3739backed No37c188.39$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.39580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+61.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x919d…afd6backed No75c186.84$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa221…d7ebbacked Yes25c181.71$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead7…efedbacked Yes27c174.08$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d2…550fbacked No75c169.08$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…ed3dbacked Yes46c168.96$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9e1…4936backed No61c163.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.983100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3108…0d1cbacked Yes8c157.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x030a…0994backed No62c156.19$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb90f…b000backed No72c156.11$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x086c…2ed8backed No66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92f9…0094backed Yes67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fe9…e00ebacked No50c146$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ecb…a149backed Yes56c144.44$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880a…308ebacked Yes70c143.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x856e…3416backed No70c143$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-52.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e48…07f6backed No74c141.53$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8f…4bdfbacked Yes68c141.17$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3af7…c6f4backed No71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9738…9818backed Yes71c140.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3ba…6cbdbacked Yes76c140$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.420%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0652…1966backed No48c140$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.