Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Championship Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c837d123b26654f24f2577499e1733c523982305e51b76d3c85dee0cf68e53d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof Rune Eaters, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Spirit Academy | 0c | 3,810$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Rune Eaters | 77c | 825.65$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.9 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Spirit Academy | 23c | 787.17$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Spirit Academy | 24c | 654.64$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.63 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Spirit Academy | 12c | 349.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Rune Eaters | 78c | 318.13$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x545e…0185backed Spirit Academy | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Rune Eaters | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c4…b7a9backed Spirit Academy | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…9661backed Spirit Academy | 12c | 299.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed Rune Eaters | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Spirit Academy | 12c | 242.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…1918backed Spirit Academy | 12c | 199.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fc…650ebacked Spirit Academy | 10c | 191.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Spirit Academy | 22c | 178.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4756…b0e8backed Spirit Academy | 12c | 171.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x728a…a75cbacked Spirit Academy | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Spirit Academy | 10c | 107.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…3b0abacked Spirit Academy | 22c | 81.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rune Eaters | 80c | 79.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Spirit Academy | 32c | 78.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3201…f37dbacked Spirit Academy | 16c | 77.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rune Eaters | 79c | 68.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…d2a0backed Rune Eaters | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Spirit Academy | 33c | 44.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Spirit Academy | 33c | 40.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…ccbebacked Spirit Academy | 40c | 40.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cee…1ac0backed Rune Eaters | 79c | 37.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Rune Eaters | 67c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rune Eaters | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Rune Eaters | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Championship Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 WinnerRune Eaters won
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 WinnerRune Eaters won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.