Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Execration vs KUKUYS V2 (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe114589977bfbbb0a07b5a06713fd9de4cad0805407072e66db0fb55234624de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Execrationof Execration, KUKUYS V2
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed KUKUYS V2 | 1c | 4,397$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Execration | 70c | 3,192$2,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.75 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked KUKUYS V2 | 31c | 1,835$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked KUKUYS V2 | 30c | 954.51$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.28 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2b…825ebacked KUKUYS V2 | 38c | 867.59$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.11 | 106 | 37.7%40 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Execration | 66c | 543.14$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.5 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed KUKUYS V2 | 26c | 499.42$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…3170backed Execration | 74c | 459.46$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.46 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Execration | 73c | 300$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed KUKUYS V2 | 25c | 242.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Execration | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed KUKUYS V2 | 23c | 199.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed KUKUYS V2 | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Execration | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5906…ea51backed KUKUYS V2 | 31c | 105.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Execration | 70c | 97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Execration | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…1918backed KUKUYS V2 | 22c | 77.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8167…c580backed Execration | 67c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…29b8backed KUKUYS V2 | 33c | 74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…2d79backed KUKUYS V2 | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…44aebacked KUKUYS V2 | 29c | 65.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed KUKUYS V2 | 24c | 65.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked KUKUYS V2 | 29c | 61.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…924abacked KUKUYS V2 | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6760…3ad4backed Execration | 71c | 58.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Execration | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c4…b7a9backed KUKUYS V2 | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked KUKUYS V2 | 31c | 34.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Execration | 75c | 34.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Execration | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c19…859cbacked Execration | 73c | 27.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5d…014bbacked Execration | 72c | 21.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…e6cabacked Execration | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ab…5d93backed Execration | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…c07cbacked Execration | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e4…1d6cbacked Execration | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Execration vs KUKUYS V2 (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Execration vs KUKUYS V2 - Game 1 WinnerExecration won
- Dota 2: Execration vs KUKUYS V2 - Game 2 WinnerExecration won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.