Token Launches · resolved market
Dogecoin above $0.24 on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa04990784a7a0536cb0e8602b88cb152106201b78b61dada6d04be8fc5fb2614
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes | 28c | 20,000$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…df44backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ee…7aa8backed No | 72c | 7,621$5,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,133.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 6,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0c…eb99backed Yes | 9c | 2,210$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed Yes | 33c | 2,093$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 11c | 2,078$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1477…6440backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Yes | 23c | 871.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…3455backed Yes | 6c | 859.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…fb0abacked Yes | 22c | 669.71$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3d…4b63backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 72c | 505.62$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…f588backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc655…37bbbacked Yes | 40c | 490$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…0486backed Yes | 40c | 435$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345e…7b41backed Yes | 43c | 435$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…205bbacked No | 66c | 353.64$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…59a9backed No | 60c | 335$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b07…0390backed No | 60c | 325$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd2…f20ebacked No | 60c | 325$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 312$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.62 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 281$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b50…683dbacked Yes | 17c | 270.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…10ebbacked No | 75c | 244.67$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b5…5993backed Yes | 53c | 228.06$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…16e6backed No | 73c | 201.05$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…d6fabacked Yes | 17c | 170.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc233…93a5backed Yes | 45c | 122.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1b…b5fabacked Yes | 29c | 113$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…e469backed No | 71c | 113$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…9661backed Yes | 15c | 105.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…65e8backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 40cpaid | +172.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…24fdbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6f…340bbacked No | 70c | 97.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d1…d284backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf97…4e5cbacked No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…c469backed Yes | 59c | 84.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 48c | 80.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x144d…f0f2backed Yes | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe6…eb8abacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a2…7886backed No | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Yes | 35c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1da…b1eabacked No | 57c | 62.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…eb41backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8170…925fbacked Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 53c | 51.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f72…740abacked Yes | 61c | 44.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 76c | 42.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…1918backed Yes | 25c | 41.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f6…c312backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d4…fda3backed Yes | 43c | 37.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec4c…779cbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf751…f148backed No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…3d86backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…c02fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…afc9backed Yes | 57c | 25.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd652…c035backed Yes | 41c | 25.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…35d5backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…9756backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.