TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$254,317
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$297,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,317 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6761…a94fbacked Yes54c162,457$87,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,346.610650%53 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7705…a627backed No46c151,375$70,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,146.041643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20cc…ebc0backed No31c11,557$3,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,58011657.8%67 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed No45c7,596$3,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,425.7837841.8%158 W · 220 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes68c5,494$3,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,746.5340254.7%220 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes69c5,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,55022050%110 W · 110 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4af1…ef00backed No47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3502846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No32c4,800$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,52868026.3%179 W · 501 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed No33c3,000$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.4534643.9%152 W · 194 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes70c2,553$1,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.8629643.6%129 W · 167 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed No32c2,500$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.9840640.9%166 W · 240 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes69c2,000$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.127651.3%39 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No32c1,409$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.333148.4%15 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No30c1,286$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.8318950.3%95 W · 94 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0661…a72ebacked Yes71c1,263$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.863666.7%24 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99c2…ef35backed No46c1,259$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.155959.3%35 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa19a…2f33backed Yes69c1,247$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.571723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-62.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7418…59e2backed No49c1,200$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5905453.7%29 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes60c1,144$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.229044.8%130 W · 160 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb88d…291abacked Yes68c1,022$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.942138.1%8 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.23per pick61cpaid-38.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked No31c1,007$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.198750.6%44 W · 43 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7b2…ece3backed No33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3302157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed Yes67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3306959.4%41 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bb5…f2a5backed No31c999.99$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dd8…eb7bbacked Yes69c999.96$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4594…b1acbacked Yes69c932.81$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.778259.8%49 W · 33 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Yes54c928.04$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.0425339.1%99 W · 154 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No37c880.64$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.7479650.8%404 W · 392 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes69c869.61$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.588633.7%29 W · 57 L-14.7wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-36.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x93b0…69c8backed No31c800$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2482035%7 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x31cf…8834backed No7c741.44$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.549037.8%34 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8140…b92fbacked Yes56c658.2$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2923748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31e4…1f69backed Yes68c645.18$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb7c…5076backed No32c644.97$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8cd…3cf2backed Yes68c629.15$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.978362.7%52 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes68c588.24$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.2444939.6%178 W · 271 L+1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ef8…eff3backed Yes68c583.95$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.893946.2%18 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+25.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefac…d647backed Yes69c528.81$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.811250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66db…7afbbacked No19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ad…f186backed Yes67c447.76$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.761361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes71c438.13$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.43961.5%24 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x188b…6003backed No34c423.65$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.82556%14 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+23.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a23…079fbacked Yes68c405.16$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.65742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed Yes69c400.06$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.0290751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1208…1feabacked Yes68c379.99$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.395160.8%31 W · 20 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+25.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3bdc…3a4ebacked Yes68c366.5$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.284963.3%31 W · 18 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+26%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x710c…ee60backed Yes69c344.43$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.772128.6%6 W · 15 L-5.9wins-0.28per pick57cpaid-58.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x0a3b…e3babacked Yes68c294.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5091…4ef5backed No32c265.63$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee9d…63e1backed Yes68c232.96$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.555050%25 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1266…cd8cbacked No30c225$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.514450.7%73 W · 71 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No31c222$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8217143.3%74 W · 97 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cd7…1365backed Yes70c210$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed No32c204.31$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.385742.1%24 W · 33 L-8.9wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-28.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6429653%157 W · 139 L-23.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x33dc…9661backed Yes68c200$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.52751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6242755%235 W · 192 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625740.4%23 W · 34 L-6.0wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No29c200$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594537.8%17 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd31…4f6dbacked Yes68c199.99$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x438e…9704backed Yes69c195.51$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.654757.4%27 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x630c…f294backed Yes62c185.44$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc7…e3efbacked Yes69c177.07$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.89837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid+19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bad…74a7backed Yes60c169.71$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.883751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f95…3012backed No31c150$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d8…7359backed No30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.51747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2599…61cdbacked Yes66c149.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+36.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f85…d745backed Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.935644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c88…6871backed Yes69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.931656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed No40c135.71$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2814659.6%87 W · 59 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes50c117.97$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9966031.2%206 W · 454 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6b00backed Yes70c109.07$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.462347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa78e…9ba9backed Yes69c103.43$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.06425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf84…2494backed No32c103.13$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3340%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4eb7…b6b0backed Yes69c101.45$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.45757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34c4…2249backed No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+53%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51b1…bce2backed No29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2918232.4%59 W · 123 L-15.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324637%17 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc689…9279backed No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8744…8f31backed No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…db98backed No17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177737.7%29 W · 48 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0795…be42backed Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c7b…a592backed Yes68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d1b…5adbbacked Yes67c99.98$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.999747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7801…422bbacked No34c98.31$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332035%7 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.21per pick56cpaid-43.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca95…fc40backed No33c95.47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.513551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf725…5d57backed Yes69c85.5$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8f5…7137backed Yes69c84.06$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6d…9dc0backed No32c84.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1152…caa8backed Yes67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.63616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-75.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Yes68c73.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.668145.7%37 W · 44 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe227…55d8backed Yes68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.537256.9%41 W · 31 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6133…d27cbacked Yes69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15f6…76d3backed No32c72.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x716a…f6cfbacked No35c71.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255242.3%22 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eee…b4b2backed Yes72c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.821463.1%135 W · 79 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e2c…097dbacked Yes69c69.93$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.681361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5326…58d2backed Yes63c64.96$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c0…8ffbbacked No31c64.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+29.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x330b…69f1backed Yes67c59.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.820447.1%96 W · 108 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.