Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa61dcf88d83ced6761ecad0db43fbb0ba8668af3f4efb21041c7d898300beba0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e0…024ebacked Yes | 20c | 2,490$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 72c | 1,150$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.25 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…66d8backed Yes | 28c | 1,120$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20c…42f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,070$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e44…79c9backed Yes | 39c | 1,004$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed No | 80c | 800$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 79c | 675.48$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.85 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 19c | 519.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 21c | 485$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed Yes | 10c | 457.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed No | 80c | 301.91$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32b…e132backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 20c | 259.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 226.78$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 69c | 199.06$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…40b9backed No | 80c | 162.5$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7d…96a1backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0f…86e7backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 79c | 138.1$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…a7eabacked Yes | 19c | 135$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 18c | 101.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…f232backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed No | 67c | 74.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -42%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 80c | 49.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 466 | 60.5%282 W · 184 L | +30.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…21dabacked Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b8…9e37backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…b7eebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 80cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-04?Yes won
- Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.