Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bc697fa00f49ca43fcbd83728106d630911f9b59b784c41f0e26bdccbfc0ebe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 13c | 7,186$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.2 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e4…1b25backed Yes | 15c | 6,390$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 15c | 5,231$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.98 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 13c | 4,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a29…325fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,692$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c9…045cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,526$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 77c | 1,905$1,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.16 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…6d96backed Yes | 23c | 1,704$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Yes | 20c | 1,178$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.26 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…6628backed Yes | 13c | 1,154$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…16b0backed Yes | 12c | 1,102$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd38…09a8backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 10cpaid | +323.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66db…7afbbacked Yes | 13c | 842.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e8…0819backed Yes | 13c | 748.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Yes | 15c | 666.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…9661backed Yes | 12c | 600$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…a7eabacked Yes | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…dc76backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…e3efbacked Yes | 14c | 558.43$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +10.6wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…e35dbacked Yes | 16c | 437.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3caa…99e4backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 78c | 408.2$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc42d…48a1backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea7…8f07backed Yes | 4c | 355.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…2a8dbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…024ebacked Yes | 13c | 293.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…e51ebacked Yes | 13c | 251.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…ef44backed Yes | 18c | 236.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 12c | 221.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Yes | 12c | 205$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 155 | 54.8%85 W · 70 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…cf42backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…4f82backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…a21dbacked Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b93…9915backed Yes | 20c | 174.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…4295backed Yes | 11c | 151.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…b289backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fce…9e10backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…7ee6backed Yes | 13c | 137.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc258…447bbacked Yes | 15c | 136.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf627…1a8abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a54…953abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3912…c081backed Yes | 14c | 133.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5eb…a613backed Yes | 12c | 129.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 13c | 126.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…1d0bbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…c769backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 13c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e9…7003backed Yes | 12c | 103$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 327 | 36.4%119 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…9908backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66d…f36fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -51%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…44d2backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc224…cd43backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x035d…3b77backed Yes | 14c | 92.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…804fbacked Yes | 17c | 88.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ef…dc31backed Yes | 13c | 84.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36b…7563backed Yes | 13c | 83.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x688f…1df0backed Yes | 17c | 76.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-04?this page
- Will Arsenal vs. Manchester United end in a draw?No won
- Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.