Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f92df8041ffe74530585645b5b3e6f8d42e61051c5c9260d9b2e5fcadd8756b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 41c | 1,007$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked No | 60c | 820$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.89 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 40c | 405$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.35 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 59c | 282.09$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…fababacked Yes | 38c | 241.45$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.82 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 76c | 204.7$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 195.53$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 192.82$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.65 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed No | 52c | 190$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 42c | 188.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 184.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 184.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 28c | 180.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.64 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 176$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 25c | 165.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.18 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 157$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 153.62$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 147.6$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 130.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 75c | 114$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 109.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 53c | 101.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 98.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 97.69$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed Yes | 40c | 95.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf64…9390backed Yes | 39c | 95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 11c | 90.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 43c | 87.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 39c | 87.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 71c | 82.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 58c | 81.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 30c | 76.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 76.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…1989backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1704…b0e1backed Yes | 76c | 72.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 26c | 72.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 15c | 70.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 47c | 70.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 47c | 60.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…13c3backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 37c | 59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 69c | 58.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 42c | 55.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 41c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 37c | 54.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 53c | 52.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 52.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 39c | 51.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e82abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc419…ca5bbacked No | 52c | 46.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 40c | 42.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 41.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 80c | 41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 66c | 39.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 38c | 38.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 39c | 38.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 38c | 37.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 31c | 36.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 60c | 35.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 41c | 35.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 40c | 34.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 58c | 34.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 33.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 62c | 32.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 50c | 31.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…0643backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…3676backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 59c | 27.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 50c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 51c | 22.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 77c | 22.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 21.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 21.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 77c | 20.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 63c | 19.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 63c | 19.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C or higher on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.