Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79461c66b23b3939f979af4daf0786a1d83dc4d8c3189457c75a9c8ae7ba686a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21c7…0643backed Yes | 51c | 1,929$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 60c | 692.91$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.82 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6188…8a17backed Yes | 50c | 495.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 367.03$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.54 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 361.93$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.93 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 35c | 347.18$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.39 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 34c | 342.21$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3929…afd2backed No | 46c | 321.67$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 284.41$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 53c | 278.58$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.51 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 41c | 241.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.57 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 40c | 200.04$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.38 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.13 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 45c | 199.75$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.3 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 196$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 47c | 195.44$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 53c | 180.73$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 45c | 173.14$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 39c | 152.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.41 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 148.13$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 147.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 32c | 143.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 142.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 45c | 142.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 75c | 139.73$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 43c | 139.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 24c | 134.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 113.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 41c | 112.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 50c | 106.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 33c | 104.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 67c | 104.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 40c | 100.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 39c | 96.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 46c | 88.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 37c | 86.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 33c | 85.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 67c | 79.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 47c | 76.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 45c | 72.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 48c | 68.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 38c | 68.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 58c | 67.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 61.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 45c | 61.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 50c | 60.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…13c3backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed No | 40c | 58.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 33c | 58.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 54c | 55.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 35c | 52.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 46c | 50.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 42c | 50.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 53c | 48.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 47c | 47.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 66c | 47.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 51c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 38c | 46.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 41c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 37c | 44.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 56c | 44.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 47c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 43.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Yes | 40c | 41.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f30…de1dbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed Yes | 66c | 38.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd4…9370backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…f2dabacked No | 50c | 37.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 67c | 37.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 54c | 37.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 42c | 33.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 38c | 33.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…033dbacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61cf…9067backed No | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 53c | 27.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 51c | 27.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 46c | 27.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 55c | 25.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C or higher on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.