TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Denmark record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,188
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,241

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,188 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcca9…af95backed No1c3,465$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x516f…ff40backed No1c2,183$13 inLost-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368c…e8d5backed No1c1,818$18 inLost-$18.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1502…ffe0backed No1c1,818$18 inLost-$18.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x359f…fa80backed No6c1,500$83 inLost-$82.8427.1%3 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf29e…3bccbacked No3c685.45$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes76c529.91$404 inWon+$125.422548%12 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick30cpaid+61.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe977…700fbacked No3c483.76$15 inLost-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No52c126.7$66 inLost-$66.057133.8%24 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8ef…abd4backed Yes50c100.06$50 inWon+$50.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2faf…d59dbacked Yes64c49.54$32 inWon+$17.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4573…c16bbacked Yes44c45.57$20 inWon+$25.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd307…6b66backed No79c19.99$16 inLost-$15.810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e4c…60a7backed Yes60c18.41$11 inWon+$7.41837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick24cpaid-27.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 47 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.