TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Estonia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,457
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,199

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,457 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x359f…fa80backed No3c1,200$40 inLost-$40427.1%3 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes15c1,111$167 inWon+$944.357627.6%21 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0b…17c3backed No2c900$18 inLost-$18238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes53c439.89$233 inWon+$206.65944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x006d…06f8backed No10c382$40 inLost-$40.021330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6f…06c4backed No38c123$47 inLost-$46.74812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-67.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No51c119.77$61 inLost-$61.087133.8%24 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked No40c72.81$29 inLost-$29.328236.6%30 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10a7…350dbacked Yes60c65.12$39 inWon+$26.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9d7…de5dbacked No79c63.29$50 inLost-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No51c36$18 inLost-$18.362770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+32.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x11ab…f911backed Yes35c28.41$10 inWon+$18.41666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+44.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 47 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.