Olympics · resolved market

Will Ukraine record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43a290c11579c8445447610631b88646d9edd4dfd352d30d150da1d441afd087

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,931
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,457

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,931 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbad2…5296backed Yes	30c	554.98$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.5	76	27.6%21 W · 55 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed No	70c	532.13$372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.64	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2760…03f3backed No	64c	399.82$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.33	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+50.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No	38c	142.03$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.06	71	33.8%24 W · 47 L	+5.8wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf934…8858backed Yes	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	26cpaid	+104.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb4…0872backed No	78c	98.72$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.72	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes	44c	59.09$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.23per pick	37cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc14…5439backed No	79c	37.97$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.97	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x388b…1343backed No	68c	22.06$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.06	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	69cpaid	+45%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f0d…336abacked No	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b79…a1dbbacked Yes	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4943…1f6fbacked No	64c	18.41$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.57	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+84.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe876…42b6backed No	77c	18.27$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.27	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6323…9100backed No	66c	18.21$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.21	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+51.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 47 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Ukraine record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event