TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Slovakia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,948

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,853 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5316…90c3backed Yes52c381.15$200 inLost-$20060%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No45c324.97$145 inWon+$179.681241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Yes23c300$69 inLost-$695366%35 W · 18 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+40%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdb9a…e3eebacked No77c300$231 inWon+$692100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked No56c265.95$148 inWon+$117.591478.6%11 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.24per pick55cpaid+55.6%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x30b5…d2e1backed Yes61c255.19$156 inLost-$15610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c2…2b81backed No64c159.93$102 inWon+$57.721291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.27per pick65cpaid+55.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed No75c152.86$115 inWon+$38.15683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+32.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d45…652abacked Yes42c142.59$60 inLost-$60.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x355f…0df8backed No70c131.7$92 inWon+$39.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes45c122.22$55 inLost-$55714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-80.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x368b…2458backed No77c100.17$77 inWon+$23.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Yes23c100$23 inLost-$23922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-70.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xce60…6705backed Yes40c99.99$40 inLost-$40728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde41…5274backed Yes44c78.96$34 inLost-$34.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No41c58.55$24 inWon+$34.787133.8%24 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked No69c55$38 inWon+$17.05425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-63.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes51c49.15$25 inLost-$251030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…8de1backed No72c41.56$30 inWon+$11.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa79e…5e9ebacked Yes31c35$11 inLost-$10.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No40c25.81$10 inWon+$15.591020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x388b…1343backed No70c21.43$15 inWon+$6.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 47 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.