Olympics · resolved market

Will Hungary record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x612847db18af11243a845a46d905016cb196254ea1333aff20479b7e2444f8a0

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $8,862
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,113

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,862 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes	2c	4,887$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.14	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	11cpaid	-92.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked No	80c	610.69$486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.22	82	36.6%30 W · 52 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe876…42b6backed Yes	23c	311.62$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No	68c	292.05$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.04	71	33.8%24 W · 47 L	+5.8wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8dbe…3b30backed Yes	5c	239.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes	15c	197.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.23per pick	37cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8906…7b41backed Yes	29c	106.08$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.25	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	37cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5476…cd93backed Yes	48c	103.47$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes	30c	102.37$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.71	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a33…237dbacked Yes	21c	95.68$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe274…eea3backed Yes	17c	86.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ef…6b77backed Yes	35c	79.95$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes	16c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4618…f25ebacked Yes	41c	60$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.86	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 47 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Hungary record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event