Olympics · resolved market
Will Spain record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d5f69efe71ba66edb54d2c413f57173ea0a5616afa94f2a3f6d381365a15463
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd277…73febacked No | 13c | 700$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…00ebbacked No | 19c | 632.86$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 62c | 328$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.72 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef8…c875backed No | 34c | 277.27$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 71c | 262.53$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…f448backed No | 34c | 255.88$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3710backed No | 19c | 252.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…abd4backed No | 13c | 234.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019d…7b4cbacked No | 15c | 230.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4387…2b3dbacked Yes | 75c | 192.26$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4644…a2b6backed No | 17c | 178.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 74c | 156.45$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked Yes | 77c | 134.8$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…faeebacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf732…c98cbacked No | 25c | 63.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed1…2639backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…6e1dbacked No | 33c | 61.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb7…2077backed No | 34c | 59.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 66c | 54.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35f…5ca6backed No | 24c | 54.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7e…4db9backed No | 27c | 51.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 29c | 50.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b7…b666backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…0203backed Yes | 78c | 42.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 74c | 40.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fe…7a83backed No | 47c | 37.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…6266backed Yes | 74c | 35.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 76c | 25.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…6431backed Yes | 66c | 24.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2847…5439backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd103…8138backed Yes | 60c | 17.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 78c | 16.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 47 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Spain record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Albania record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Andorra record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Australia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Austria record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Belgium record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Bolivia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Brazil record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Bulgaria record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Chile record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will China record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Chinese Taipei record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Croatia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Czech Republic record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Denmark record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Estonia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Finland record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Georgia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Great Britain record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Greece record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Hong Kong record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Hungary record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Iceland record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Iran record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Ireland record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Jamaica record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Japan record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Kazakhstan record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Latvia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Liechtenstein record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Lithuania record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Mongolia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Netherlands record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will New Zealand record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will North Macedonia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Poland record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Portugal record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Romania record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Serbia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Slovakia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Slovenia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Sweden record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Turkey record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Ukraine record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will United States record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Uruguay record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?No won
- Will an Individual Neutral Athlete record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.