TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa79e…5e9e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: AI, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category AI at 53 out of 100; worst MLB at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 137.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$637Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$588.2
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclonesbacked Kentucky Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$748Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$748
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskersbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$475Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$535.89
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5)backed Gonzaga Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.71
Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-14.5)backed Kansas Jayhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$470
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 132.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$780Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$780.04
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Clemson Tigersbacked Clemson Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.47
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tidebacked Hofstra Pride · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$280
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 158.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+100%+$22.58
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7.5)backed Texas Tech Red Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$510
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-25.5)backed Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,097Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+100%+$1,096.87
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heelsbacked North Carolina Tar Heels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$560
Howard Bison vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 151.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$510
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 164.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Wisconsin Badgers (-9.5)backed Wisconsin Badgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$518Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$518.03
All 15 picks, newest first.
MLBlast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Barcelona Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Hamad Medjedovicbacked Marco Trungelliti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$309
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Hamad Medjedovic vs Quentin Halysbacked Quentin Halys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+170.1%+$160.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$512Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+29.5%+$151.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Patriots vs. Ravensbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+27.2%+$9.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Slovakia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alex Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.