TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 164.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,574

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,574 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Under51c489.8$250 inWon+$24018556.8%105 W · 80 L+14.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Under51c489.79$250 inWon+$24013343.6%58 W · 75 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa59…75ecbacked Under51c289.79$148 inWon+$14214346.9%67 W · 76 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Over49c283.22$139 inLost-$138.781,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Over49c202.3$99 inLost-$99.1383350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa79e…5e9ebacked Over50c200$100 inLost-$1001540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f9…84e6backed Under50c198.25$99 inWon+$99.1320642.7%88 W · 118 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under54c86.33$46 inWon+$39.9612,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over50c53.74$27 inLost-$27.033,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Over46c50$23 inLost-$237950.6%40 W · 39 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Under68c49.65$34 inWon+$15.9427955.2%154 W · 125 L+22.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b5c…ab22backed Over27c40$11 inLost-$10.82450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under65c33.57$22 inWon+$11.755,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x50c0…eb7fbacked Over41c30$12 inLost-$12.31020%2 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-54.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Under42c25.92$11 inWon+$15.0315238.8%59 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over46c22$10 inLost-$10.122,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.