TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
South Florida Bullsof Louisville Cardinals, South Florida Bulls
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,066 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Louisville Cardinals52c1,079$565 inLost-$564.8312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked South Florida Bulls45c589.55$265 inWon+$324.2546246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed South Florida Bulls45c324.17$146 inWon+$178.413,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf2…0f0dbacked South Florida Bulls58c320$186 inWon+$134.42360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Louisville Cardinals52c230.06$120 inLost-$120.351,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Louisville Cardinals45c179.81$80 inLost-$80.2452843.6%230 W · 298 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed South Florida Bulls48c156.68$75 inWon+$81.472,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed South Florida Bulls47c71.37$34 inWon+$37.8322756.4%128 W · 99 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbbfb…e01fbacked South Florida Bulls50c39.65$20 inWon+$19.83450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed South Florida Bulls52c25.62$13 inWon+$12.335338.5%136 W · 217 L-18.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.