Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62dbeebd281e9a8ebb6d35a21ad7b386a0be535de7e50f08161622c8c7511dd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisville Cardinalsof Louisville Cardinals, South Florida Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $374,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $374,215 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Louisville Cardinals | 51c | 110,239$56,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,521.21 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked South Florida Bulls | 49c | 36,060$17,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,669.52 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked South Florida Bulls | 49c | 32,546$15,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,930.17 | 394 | 54.6%215 W · 179 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed South Florida Bulls | 48c | 25,000$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,000 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +34.7wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked South Florida Bulls | 48c | 10,274$4,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,898.94 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Louisville Cardinals | 53c | 7,893$4,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,709.51 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed South Florida Bulls | 48c | 7,825$3,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,756.1 | 177 | 42.9%76 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Louisville Cardinals | 51c | 4,705$2,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,307.87 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed South Florida Bulls | 49c | 4,550$2,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,229.43 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked South Florida Bulls | 47c | 2,962$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.27 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Louisville Cardinals | 51c | 2,490$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.26 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed South Florida Bulls | 48c | 1,990$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.89 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 1,667$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.15 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked South Florida Bulls | 39c | 1,658$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653 | 343 | 43.4%149 W · 194 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed South Florida Bulls | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed South Florida Bulls | 54c | 1,021$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.13 | 216 | 36.1%78 W · 138 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ec…759fbacked South Florida Bulls | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked South Florida Bulls | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed South Florida Bulls | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed South Florida Bulls | 30c | 992.65$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.8 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +7.9wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed South Florida Bulls | 32c | 950.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.07 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed South Florida Bulls | 46c | 936.69$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.96 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Louisville Cardinals | 51c | 909.13$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.75 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed South Florida Bulls | 47c | 800.17$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.08 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Louisville Cardinals | 51c | 561.38$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.91 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…fed6backed South Florida Bulls | 49c | 554.29$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Louisville Cardinals | 66c | 541.59$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.14 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 476.57$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.75 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked South Florida Bulls | 7c | 464.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Louisville Cardinals | 47c | 421.82$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.57 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…74a8backed Louisville Cardinals | 53c | 314.74$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.34 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1277backed South Florida Bulls | 14c | 294.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 285.94$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.25 | 270 | 45.2%122 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed South Florida Bulls | 50c | 257.73$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.86 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…0a59backed South Florida Bulls | 48c | 207.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Louisville Cardinals | 51c | 202.2$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401d…23c6backed Louisville Cardinals | 57c | 172.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed South Florida Bulls | 48c | 140.27$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…9baebacked Louisville Cardinals | 53c | 138.03$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed South Florida Bulls | 45c | 114.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed South Florida Bulls | 55c | 109.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…e59abacked South Florida Bulls | 49c | 107.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -7.0wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed South Florida Bulls | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Louisville Cardinals | 54c | 105.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked South Florida Bulls | 26c | 103.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…2687backed Louisville Cardinals | 54c | 91.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked South Florida Bulls | 55c | 79.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…080dbacked South Florida Bulls | 52c | 77.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +827.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed South Florida Bulls | 36c | 72.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Louisville Cardinals | 38c | 64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Louisville Cardinals | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Louisville Cardinals | 45c | 51.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Louisville Cardinals | 58c | 44.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Louisville Cardinals | 65c | 39.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Louisville Cardinals | 45c | 35.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 83 | 72.3%60 W · 23 L | +14.6wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed South Florida Bulls | 47c | 33.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed South Florida Bulls | 35c | 30.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 229 | 53.7%123 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked South Florida Bulls | 48c | 30.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 301 | 52.8%159 W · 142 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc6…ace8backed South Florida Bulls | 49c | 30.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked South Florida Bulls | 50c | 29.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b66…dbd1backed Louisville Cardinals | 73c | 28.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Louisville Cardinals | 51c | 24.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Louisville Cardinals | 51c | 23.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 23.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 330 | 58.2%192 W · 138 L | +24.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…333ebacked Louisville Cardinals | 71c | 14.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-3.5)this page
- South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville CardinalsLouisville Cardinals won
- South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 146.5Over won
- South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 147.5Over won
- South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 148.5Over won
- South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 149.5Over won
- South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 151.5Over won
- South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 153.5Over won
- South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 156.5Over won
- South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 159.5Over won
- South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 160.5Over won
- South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 161.5Over won
- South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 162.5Under won
- South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 163.5Under won
- South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 164.5Under won
- South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals: O/U 165.5Under won
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-10.5)South Florida Bulls won
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-4.5)South Florida Bulls won
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-5.5)South Florida Bulls won
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-6.5)South Florida Bulls won
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-7.5)South Florida Bulls won
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-8.5)South Florida Bulls won
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-9.5)South Florida Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.