TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
South Florida Bullsof Louisville Cardinals, South Florida Bulls
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,692

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,692 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd696…8a49backed South Florida Bulls52c3,208$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.9684147.4%399 W · 442 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Louisville Cardinals43c3,173$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.65,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Louisville Cardinals47c2,460$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.8712,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda75…bbf9backed South Florida Bulls59c1,814$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.5423754.9%130 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked Louisville Cardinals48c1,754$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842.114654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39eb…0e4cbacked South Florida Bulls56c1,394$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.411747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e6…dcdfbacked Louisville Cardinals48c1,216$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.53666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+37.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked South Florida Bulls53c1,108$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.732,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa84d…74a8backed South Florida Bulls49c1,005$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.478444%37 W · 47 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked Louisville Cardinals48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4802853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe33f…e413backed Louisville Cardinals44c999.98$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.9937246.2%172 W · 200 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Louisville Cardinals48c996.57$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.3518556.8%105 W · 80 L+14.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Louisville Cardinals47c987.88$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.225,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked South Florida Bulls47c909.55$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.7616054.4%87 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9764…c40cbacked South Florida Bulls56c637.31$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.425253.8%28 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked Louisville Cardinals54c627.83$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.032050%10 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198c…6a94backed South Florida Bulls56c624.97$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.9918846.8%88 W · 100 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Louisville Cardinals48c605.21$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.522250%111 W · 111 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Louisville Cardinals45c548.46$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.821,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Louisville Cardinals47c490.5$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.482,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed South Florida Bulls54c455.55$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.7216248.1%78 W · 84 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Louisville Cardinals49c365.64$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.6613842.8%59 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Louisville Cardinals54c344.19$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.864,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Louisville Cardinals42c317.15$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.261652.8%325 W · 291 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23c0…77babacked Louisville Cardinals48c316.03$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Louisville Cardinals44c315.44$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.791,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a45…1405backed South Florida Bulls49c285.96$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.154953.1%26 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Louisville Cardinals45c272.52$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.731,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked South Florida Bulls56c270.98$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.0617051.2%87 W · 83 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Louisville Cardinals41c264.24$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3418744.9%84 W · 103 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed South Florida Bulls53c239.64$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.3592246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Louisville Cardinals44c225.31$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1483350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59a8…eb4ebacked South Florida Bulls55c223.69$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7710150.5%51 W · 50 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Louisville Cardinals47c201.64$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.776149.2%30 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f9…84e6backed South Florida Bulls55c199.13$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6120642.7%88 W · 118 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Louisville Cardinals43c175.44$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4493941.6%391 W · 548 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed South Florida Bulls57c173.93$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7933855%186 W · 152 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked South Florida Bulls55c152.98$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7121850.9%111 W · 107 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed South Florida Bulls57c150.15$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.567045.7%32 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x087b…713ebacked Louisville Cardinals47c137.85$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.791040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Louisville Cardinals47c137.85$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7918048.9%88 W · 92 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Louisville Cardinals47c126.27$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0630054%162 W · 138 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Louisville Cardinals48c114.42$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.929347.3%44 W · 49 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e55…be6fbacked South Florida Bulls44c112.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.09250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2344…3dbebacked Louisville Cardinals48c103.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.562755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Louisville Cardinals47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed South Florida Bulls58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4214546.9%68 W · 77 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Louisville Cardinals48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4838345.4%174 W · 209 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Louisville Cardinals45c99.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Louisville Cardinals46c99.01$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4452843.6%230 W · 298 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked South Florida Bulls53c98.28$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1927947.3%132 W · 147 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Louisville Cardinals45c96.16$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2730152.8%159 W · 142 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed South Florida Bulls54c95.17$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7832652.8%172 W · 154 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Louisville Cardinals52c89.77$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6824951.8%129 W · 120 L+19.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Louisville Cardinals46c80.89$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2130649%150 W · 156 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f1…b386backed South Florida Bulls53c74.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.054628.3%13 W · 33 L-7.6wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Louisville Cardinals48c59.48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5550745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02f7…b17abacked South Florida Bulls56c58.42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56a7…9f37backed South Florida Bulls54c54.53$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.096963.8%44 W · 25 L+10.0wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+32.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Louisville Cardinals48c53.79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.663551.4%18 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed Louisville Cardinals47c52.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.788543.5%37 W · 48 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb49…1fbebacked Louisville Cardinals48c51.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.787951.9%41 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d8e…3d55backed Louisville Cardinals48c51.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.787655.3%42 W · 34 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x835c…8e3bbacked Louisville Cardinals48c51.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.783053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked South Florida Bulls51c50.93$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.730652%159 W · 147 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Louisville Cardinals59c46.35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5533445.5%152 W · 182 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd077…46c0backed Louisville Cardinals46c42.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.612157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Louisville Cardinals59c42.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.791,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf953…1535backed South Florida Bulls59c42.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.231250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6ab…cd8dbacked Louisville Cardinals48c41.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.831376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+50.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Louisville Cardinals47c41.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.397044.3%31 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed South Florida Bulls53c37.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.740849.8%203 W · 205 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked South Florida Bulls55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.364,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5337…222bbacked South Florida Bulls53c33.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.713246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b2…2e80backed Louisville Cardinals48c31.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3612…cf99backed Louisville Cardinals46c30.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.251936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed South Florida Bulls54c30.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2735338.5%136 W · 217 L-18.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed South Florida Bulls52c29.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0662451.1%319 W · 305 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d02…46e2backed South Florida Bulls56c28.69$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.628640.7%35 W · 51 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e75…664bbacked Louisville Cardinals59c26.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7230%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Louisville Cardinals47c24.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7382846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Louisville Cardinals48c23.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.435954.2%32 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c94…1b47backed South Florida Bulls53c22.41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.52837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67f4…0cb2backed Louisville Cardinals46c22.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.330%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed South Florida Bulls54c20.28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.31,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe906…5a44backed Louisville Cardinals54c19.06$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.23036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.