Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b45dfd09ee98b5cf5681b2d0ba815a3ddb7d05d4df1bcd2f3bae35fed485d51

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,261,490

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,261,490 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 854 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8556…fad9backed Yes	38c	32,720$12,549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,170.84	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	30,032$2,561 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27,471.46	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	72c	24,554$17,699 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,698.6	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	59c	23,295$13,782 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,782.09	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	41c	22,742$9,234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,508.1	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	31c	14,954$4,571 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,382.29	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	23c	12,006$2,726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,726.36	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e8f…e1ebbacked Yes	77c	11,921$9,138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,783.67	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.18per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No	48c	11,000$5,325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,325	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	65c	10,729$7,021 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,708.81	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	35c	10,345$3,634 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,710.59	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ec…a7a8backed No	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	74c	8,965$6,604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,603.95	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	9c	8,621$817 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,804.1	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	45c	8,000$3,573 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,427.17	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked No	3c	7,792$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.81	124	24.2%30 W · 94 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	15cpaid	+100.4%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0170…a17cbacked Yes	59c	7,719$4,523 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,196.29	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4132…1a31backed No	18c	7,597$1,359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,358.97	23	73.9%17 W · 6 L	+2.9wins	+0.12per pick	61cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	8c	6,626$511 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,115.32	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	36c	6,503$2,371 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,132.64	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25c2…08c7backed Yes	8c	6,427$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,917.01	86	19.8%17 W · 69 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	36c	6,404$2,292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,111.95	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	6,212$307 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,904.81	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	18c	5,676$999 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,676.69	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7dd…6a2cbacked No	73c	5,628$4,110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,110.49	131	26.7%35 W · 96 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	38c	5,557$2,129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,428.51	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	52c	5,531$2,875 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,656.13	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	53c	5,500$2,909 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,590.67	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	16c	5,479$869 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,610.11	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa899…f68dbacked Yes	8c	5,382$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,942.43	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	7c	5,375$368 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,006.44	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	28c	5,064$1,419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,644.87	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	45c	5,013$2,232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,781.04	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	50c	5,000$2,486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,514.15	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	29c	4,868$1,430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,437.5	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1215backed Yes	31c	4,831$1,475 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,355.69	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	8c	4,775$398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,377.02	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed No	0c	4,750$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	12c	4,603$565 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,038	413	10.7%44 W · 369 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f02…184fbacked No	0c	4,504$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	7c	4,480$317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,162.86	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	15c	4,275$646 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,629.64	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	78c	4,219$3,273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$945.83	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	71c	4,136$2,946 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,946.38	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	19c	4,000$752 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,248.24	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	9c	3,947$343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,603.84	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No	17c	3,926$668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$667.54	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	12c	3,819$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,369.51	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	13c	3,810$479 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,331.31	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	11c	3,800$414 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,385.56	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4243…47a8backed Yes	64c	3,697$2,383 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,313.56	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	3,665$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,458.24	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No	72c	3,665$2,624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,623.93	56	53.6%30 W · 26 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	23c	3,649$854 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,794.54	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	34c	3,482$1,177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,177.08	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes	36c	3,388$1,211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,176.81	74	36.5%27 W · 47 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea85…efe5backed Yes	9c	3,252$298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,954.93	62	14.5%9 W · 53 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+28%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b14…2a35backed Yes	14c	3,250$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,810.4	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	22c	3,179$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,479.12	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	29c	3,146$904 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,242.12	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	8c	3,099$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,839.44	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	14c	3,019$417 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,601.75	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	50	30%15 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde03…e629backed Yes	77c	2,952$2,266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$686.03	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	46c	2,912$1,346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,566.22	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	2,839$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,655.96	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	8c	2,777$229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,547.48	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	7c	2,766$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,565.14	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9df…76c1backed Yes	33c	2,603$868 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,735.19	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	64c	2,553$1,627 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$925.99	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	23c	2,439$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,879.08	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	2,401$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,382.01	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	7c	2,360$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,193.25	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	3c	2,297$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,231.53	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	7c	2,287$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,120.33	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes	11c	2,266$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,005.36	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86f7…4edbbacked Yes	8c	2,141$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,977.22	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+83.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	5c	2,116$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,002.25	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8a…edf9backed No	50c	2,084$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050.43	51	74.5%38 W · 13 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15fe…27d2backed Yes	66c	2,059$1,365 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$693.85	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	27c	2,052$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,491.8	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	13c	2,006$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,738.2	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	17c	2,003$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,652.97	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd13f…4906backed Yes	76c	2,000$1,520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2357…2529backed No	24c	2,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x117f…e958backed No	14c	2,000$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.99	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	24c	1,977$465 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,512.2	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd30…b342backed Yes	1c	1,910$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,896.63	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.48per pick	2cpaid	+7,042.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	8c	1,891$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,740.57	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe8a…f604backed Yes	37c	1,876$686 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,189.79	69	34.8%24 W · 45 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x811e…265cbacked Yes	75c	1,872$1,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$471.9	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+55.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Yes	10c	1,869$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,680.75	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes	60c	1,845$1,113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$731.61	195	50.3%98 W · 97 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bf1…6595backed Yes	5c	1,836$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,744.06	35	45.7%16 W · 19 L	+4.4wins	+0.13per pick	33cpaid	+81.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	40c	1,828$727 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,101.45	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x969b…db70backed Yes	1c	1,818$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,798.18	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.33per pick	1cpaid	+2,930.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	10c	1,815$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,625.51	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x028b…06bcbacked Yes	35c	1,785$628 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,157.13	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x087e…51c5backed Yes	46c	1,779$822 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$957.08	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+41.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7d…6ca0backed Yes	69c	1,767$1,220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$546.66	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	44cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event