TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Pacers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lakersof Lakers, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,992,506

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,992,506 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 653 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Lakers80c218,991$174,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,438.0254539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Pacers22c205,971$45,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,313.6216841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Pacers20c190,730$37,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,609.3929245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Lakers78c154,000$120,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,84023257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x183d…1270backed Pacers0c135,207$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.94619.6%9 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Pacers22c110,000$24,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,199.9243148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x893b…a860backed Pacers3c105,786$2,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,956.99185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Pacers22c99,925$21,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,983.4411955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pacers0c92,140$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.621,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Pacers18c90,578$16,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,468.6332540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lakers79c66,473$52,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,956.534,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Pacers18c55,000$9,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,9001,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Pacers18c50,255$9,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,295.7441832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Pacers0c47,264$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.265213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Pacers18c46,592$8,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,386.611,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Lakers78c30,000$23,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,60034456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Pacers0c27,051$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.153179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Lakers79c25,327$19,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,336.91,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Pacers0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Pacers20c24,450$4,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,89071547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Pacers0c20,848$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7967911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Pacers0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4027917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Pacers16c20,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.9374748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Pacers12c19,798$2,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,375.7335547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Lakers80c19,646$15,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,010.9637944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pacers6c19,120$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.531,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Pacers0c18,055$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.564573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Pacers14c17,131$2,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,442.5942348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Pacers18c17,118$3,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,081.329055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22e9…8dd0backed Lakers79c16,935$13,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,556.36475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Pacers17c15,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.9949244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb5b…6fc4backed Pacers17c13,003$2,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,210.51812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick49cpaid-75%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Lakers78c13,000$10,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,86017646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Lakers78c12,821$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,820.5110352.4%54 W · 49 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe29e…fa35backed Pacers1c12,735$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8834136.1%123 W · 218 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Pacers15c12,449$1,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,814.961,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Pacers1c12,390$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.91,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Pacers16c12,000$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,86010743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa84…e95cbacked Pacers0c11,832$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Pacers6c11,778$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.5614663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4059…23dabacked Pacers0c11,239$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.481234.9%6 W · 117 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+19.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f3b…0cf9backed Pacers17c11,159$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90022159.7%132 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70ce…079fbacked Pacers17c10,700$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8191526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Pacers15c10,387$1,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.9223833.2%79 W · 159 L-19.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-47.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b52…568ebacked Lakers80c10,208$8,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,041.54963.3%31 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe0…d994backed Pacers17c10,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70037448.7%182 W · 192 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Pacers0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019432%62 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc48…7294backed Pacers22c10,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2001266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8650…b8babacked Lakers79c10,000$7,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1002556%14 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa25d…2227backed Lakers78c10,000$7,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.9510641.5%44 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78bc…5616backed Pacers23c8,696$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00014745.6%67 W · 80 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Lakers77c8,565$6,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,932.0520355.2%112 W · 91 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Pacers19c7,839$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,515.342,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Pacers15c7,423$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.0329250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02b6…fbbbbacked Lakers78c7,385$5,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,624.623256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Pacers19c7,035$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.4365939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3497…812bbacked Lakers80c6,951$5,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,390.253100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Lakers78c6,523$5,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,434.9635251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3c…e044backed Pacers1c6,400$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335516.4%9 W · 46 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pacers0c6,340$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.448820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Pacers1c6,291$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.587211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pacers18c6,254$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.524,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pacers9c6,130$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.88,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe8c…448fbacked Pacers17c6,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Pacers20c5,929$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.8937557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Pacers18c5,704$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.4543438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f07…f1bcbacked Pacers21c5,593$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.531346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed Pacers18c5,534$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.092060%12 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25c2…cd02backed Pacers12c5,518$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.912954.3%70 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Pacers22c5,500$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.991,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Pacers21c5,491$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.149838.8%38 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Pacers18c5,425$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.4286641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Lakers78c5,126$3,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.6417356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Lakers79c5,063$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.2914766%97 W · 50 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Lakers80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00016346.6%76 W · 87 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9615…60ddbacked Lakers80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00014853.4%79 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa97b…388dbacked Pacers21c5,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0501844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7c…958ebacked Lakers79c5,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0503951.3%20 W · 19 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Pacers6c5,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b8…043fbacked Lakers78c4,943$3,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.549861.2%60 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick63cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc689…5250backed Pacers16c4,909$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.53767.6%25 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pacers7c4,840$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.833,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Lakers77c4,600$3,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,05818553%98 W · 87 L+0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc20b…2fb8backed Pacers15c4,500$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.55119.6%10 W · 41 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-45.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Lakers78c4,490$3,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.817162.6%107 W · 64 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pacers11c4,235$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.65,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70e9…c6efbacked Lakers79c4,214$3,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.032673.1%19 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Pacers20c4,100$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8201,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Pacers0c4,040$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.199629.2%28 W · 68 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Pacers22c4,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8150…e7f1backed Pacers15c3,980$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.25632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec6e…2a01backed Lakers78c3,692$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.312969%20 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Pacers12c3,589$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.6234851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d22…1807backed Pacers10c3,549$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.45850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Pacers16c3,460$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.620537.1%76 W · 129 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked Pacers23c3,444$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.2310457.7%60 W · 44 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c81…22fdbacked Pacers17c3,400$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed6c…3fdfbacked Pacers12c3,300$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Pacers13c3,132$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.141,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Pacers17c3,119$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.7355346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 46 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.