TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,811

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,811 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6814…a9e7backed Yes5c622.86$34 inLost-$34.143,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No72c551.54$397 inWon+$154.431,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc984…195ebacked Yes26c386$100 inLost-$1004850%24 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x23f5…5ef2backed Yes28c385$106 inLost-$106.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+50.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ae0…8f73backed Yes28c268.26$75 inLost-$753243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked No73c250.82$183 inWon+$67.7239265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f02…f85fbacked Yes9c172$15 inLost-$14.972853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No74c151.41$112 inWon+$39.464,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5818…39e2backed No75c150$113 inWon+$37.513950.4%70 W · 69 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe86d…ada3backed No74c120.68$89 inWon+$31.3815362.1%95 W · 58 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3797…6dc9backed Yes27c104.12$28 inLost-$28.0650%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked No70c101.63$71 inWon+$30.4927074.1%200 W · 70 L+30.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7cf5…40f5backed Yes30c101.63$30 inLost-$30.491118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-46.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked No73c91.12$66 inWon+$24.629975.8%75 W · 24 L+16.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+28%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x32ef…77e7backed Yes26c76.06$20 inLost-$202114.3%3 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-61.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed Yes55c41.74$23 inLost-$237022.9%16 W · 54 L-14.1wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-50.7%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No73c39.66$29 inWon+$10.7192058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked No73c30$22 inWon+$8.188057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed No74c21.54$16 inWon+$5.689853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 46 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.