TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,697 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x949e…20afbacked Yes30c502.77$150 inLost-$149.716240.3%25 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No70c408.35$286 inWon+$122.241,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a35…2180backed Yes30c388.83$119 inLost-$118.56714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-57.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked No72c318.68$229 inWon+$89.4239265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked No68c300.08$204 inWon+$95.89975.8%75 W · 24 L+16.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+28%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x5c85…433abacked Yes29c217.38$63 inLost-$63.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe86d…ada3backed No74c131.16$97 inWon+$34.6515362.1%95 W · 58 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ef…77e7backed Yes27c74.44$20 inLost-$202114.3%3 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-61.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb1ee…0f22backed Yes33c65.69$22 inLost-$21.6638736.4%141 W · 246 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No73c36$26 inWon+$9.94,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5fc…dbc6backed Yes38c31.18$12 inLost-$11.82532%8 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x376d…bc1bbacked No66c30.07$20 inWon+$10.229869.4%68 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c06…bbeebacked No70c21$15 inWon+$6.313448.5%65 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff7f…bb30backed No70c21$15 inWon+$6.34637%17 W · 29 L-6.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed No72c16.25$12 inWon+$4.5489853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 46 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.