Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x221959fe367bcd17f8438404ad8785b41631c12494949298c2f30ccadb3d60fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Aurora, Tundra Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,214,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,214,229 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 688 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Aurora | 67c | 110,026$73,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73,983.68 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 40c | 57,570$22,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,796.27 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Tundra Esports | 60c | 49,018$29,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,712.49 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Tundra Esports | 32c | 36,709$11,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,961.79 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 33,991$19,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,420.83 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Tundra Esports | 32c | 27,774$8,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,886.31 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…96a5backed Aurora | 42c | 27,395$11,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,379.95 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 25,000$14,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,571.88 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Tundra Esports | 62c | 20,933$12,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,965.45 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora | 45c | 20,027$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 19,000$11,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,660 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 45c | 17,971$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…bf55backed Tundra Esports | 33c | 17,906$5,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,918.75 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 15,700$9,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,185.31 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Tundra Esports | 65c | 13,936$8,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,940.14 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fb…b277backed Tundra Esports | 55c | 12,320$6,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,543.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Aurora | 43c | 12,087$5,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,176.71 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Aurora | 44c | 11,417$5,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,047.57 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Aurora | 68c | 11,000$7,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,480 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2199…f619backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 10,300$5,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,406 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 39c | 9,978$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37bf…8916backed Aurora | 45c | 9,333$4,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,184.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 9,103$5,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,007.75 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…7d71backed Aurora | 41c | 9,000$3,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,689.99 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacce…72e8backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 8,926$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,725.83 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x835c…684ebacked Tundra Esports | 59c | 8,296$4,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,406.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa55…4174backed Aurora | 10c | 7,876$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Aurora | 37c | 7,790$2,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,888 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…634ebacked Aurora | 43c | 7,304$3,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,104.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Aurora | 63c | 6,593$4,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,171.94 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Aurora | 52c | 6,518$3,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,366.37 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Tundra Esports | 32c | 6,250$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,250 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…8967backed Aurora | 43c | 6,000$2,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,571.17 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…a603backed Aurora | 43c | 5,896$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,519.95 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Tundra Esports | 41c | 5,618$2,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,312.74 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Aurora | 36c | 5,614$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016.95 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f62…a37cbacked Tundra Esports | 55c | 5,514$3,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,481.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed Aurora | 42c | 5,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.96 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 4,846$2,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,101.93 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aad…88d4backed Aurora | 42c | 4,453$1,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.34 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd857…c092backed Aurora | 40c | 4,091$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f8…394dbacked Tundra Esports | 55c | 3,819$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 43c | 3,650$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,570.02 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Tundra Esports | 61c | 3,635$2,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.62 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 3,480$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.79 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Tundra Esports | 59c | 3,395$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.51 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 3,300$1,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Aurora | 20c | 3,290$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.47 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Aurora | 35c | 3,189$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.58 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed Aurora | 42c | 3,000$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.99 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora | 42c | 3,000$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Tundra Esports | 49c | 2,927$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.21 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6463…1f5cbacked Aurora | 68c | 2,850$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,928.49 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9553…cfc7backed Tundra Esports | 64c | 2,823$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.93 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115f…e217backed Aurora | 43c | 2,810$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.39 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…1069backed Aurora | 68c | 2,802$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.27 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…b5e5backed Aurora | 43c | 2,673$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.19 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Aurora | 41c | 2,619$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.62 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Aurora | 42c | 2,508$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.26 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 2,464$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.21 | 201 | 56.7%114 W · 87 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…de83backed Aurora | 39c | 2,433$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed Tundra Esports | 68c | 2,337$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.61 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora | 35c | 2,302$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.64 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17a…c30dbacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 2,200$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Aurora | 40c | 2,095$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.75 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed Tundra Esports | 56c | 2,022$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.68 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Aurora | 30c | 1,903$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.13 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…1b03backed Tundra Esports | 51c | 1,832$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.76 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…db99backed Tundra Esports | 40c | 1,765$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.55 | 363 | 43.3%157 W · 206 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Aurora | 41c | 1,750$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a8…9579backed Tundra Esports | 32c | 1,747$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed Tundra Esports | 50c | 1,735$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.02 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…0f6dbacked Aurora | 66c | 1,710$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Aurora | 42c | 1,709$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.17 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Tundra Esports | 33c | 1,687$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.91 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6135…efa0backed Aurora | 48c | 1,674$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.03 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 1,670$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Aurora | 39c | 1,543$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.21 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…98aabacked Tundra Esports | 58c | 1,516$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.87 | 291 | 60.1%175 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Aurora | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a60…d74fbacked Aurora | 59c | 1,500$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8894…085cbacked Tundra Esports | 34c | 1,500$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…9279backed Aurora | 40c | 1,500$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Tundra Esports | 32c | 1,480$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.4 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Aurora | 51c | 1,477$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.44 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Tundra Esports | 62c | 1,454$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.4 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…b084backed Tundra Esports | 57c | 1,404$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.51 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Aurora | 43c | 1,402$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.69 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Aurora | 44c | 1,401$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.01 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…f8d0backed Tundra Esports | 58c | 1,355$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.37 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Tundra Esports | 59c | 1,332$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.06 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…66f5backed Tundra Esports | 64c | 1,311$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.76 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Tundra Esports | 41c | 1,310$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.75 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Tundra Esports | 48c | 1,282$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.94 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Aurora | 43c | 1,279$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.05 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…d2f0backed Tundra Esports | 60c | 1,235$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…832cbacked Aurora | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 419 | 44.2%185 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Tundra Esports | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…ef07backed Tundra Esports | 50c | 1,186$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.64 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)Aurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 44.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 46.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 47.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 49.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.