Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x628e416dbf5d77451e6c964bfa28cf4777b67e3d9ed84d857973722b2d5187d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Tundra Esports, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,606 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd3…c69dbacked Tundra Esports | 0c | 9,740$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Tundra Esports | 40c | 500$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.52 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Aurora | 73c | 444$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Aurora | 69c | 348.52$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.04 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tundra Esports | 27c | 314.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.47 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Aurora | 59c | 290.38$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.05 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Tundra Esports | 33c | 111.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…b778backed Aurora | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Aurora | 62c | 69.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Tundra Esports | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1b11backed Aurora | 65c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb50…c314backed Aurora | 71c | 37.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed Aurora | 75c | 26.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 59 | 78%46 W · 13 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde6e…7fa3backed Aurora | 75c | 25.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia PlayoffsTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 44.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 46.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 47.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 49.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.